For some years now New Zealand have looked set to make the 2019 Rugby World Cup a one-horse race. And this was still the case a month or so ago – especially in the eyes of New Jersey’s sportsbook operators.
Their going odds on NZ successful defending a crown they have won three times were then around a very tight 11/10.
However, some extraordinary results in the past few weeks, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere, have changed all that.
Two-time World Cup winners South Africa and Australia have suddenly barged into real contention. So too has one-time winner England – and it seems to have left NJ bookmakers with very mixed feelings.
All still have New Zealand topping their list of favorites, though there is some disagreement about the price. Whereas FanDuel’s odds have weakened (+130), and so have Resorts Casino’s (+135) PointsBet is still offering them at +111.
There were even bigger differences over who will be the Kiwi’s most dangerous World Cup challenger next month.
FanDuel sees South Africa as the second favorite at +470
FanDuel, the market leader of the NJ sports betting industry, likes South Africa. It has them in second place at +470 as against England at +500, Ireland at +750, Wales at +850 and Australia some way back at +1400.
The Resorts Casino online sportsbook, on the other hand, sees England as the second favorite at +450. South Africa follows at +500, Ireland at +700, Wales at +800 and Australia at +1200.
PointsBet, whose +111 odds on NZ varied so much from other sportsbooks, also had England in second place (at +450). However, they preferred Ireland (+500) and Wales (+600) to South Africa (+800) and Australia (+1200).
To understand the mixed feelings about the World Cup, let’s look back at recent events
To start with, for the first time in a decade NZ did not win ‘The Rugby Championship’. It is annually contested by Argentina, Australia, South Africa and themselves – this year shortened to just one round per country.
Guided by rugby-smart ‘Russie’ Erasmus, their feisty pack and resilient defense saw South Africa pull it off this time.
The Boks did it by whipping Australia 35-17 at home, tying 16-all with the All Blacks away and thrashing Argentina 46-13 away.
Australia thumped the mighty All Blacks 47-26
Except for their heavy loss against the Springboks, Australia also had a good run. They had a close but solid 16-10 win away against the Pumas. Then they came up with that stunning 47-26 record win against the Kiwis at home.
That encounter last week also served as the first leg of the Bledisloe Cup. If they can also win the second leg on Saturday it will really throw the cat among the pigeons
Meantime, all this drama has signaled that while SA and Oz are in a good place, NZ and Argentina are not. The first two look to be peaking at the right time. The second two seem to have lost their way with very little time to rediscover it.
In the Northern Hemisphere England’s World Cup warm-up victory over a hitherto rampant Wales last week has also thrown a spanner in the works.
If Wales had won, they would have replaced New Zealand at the top of the World Rugby Union rankings. Their defeat, then, was yet another shock for the rugby world.
It’s no wonder then that right now with only weeks remaining here is so much turmoil and confusion in both the rugby and sports betting worlds
Ironically, this could be a good time to pick up some really worthwhile wagers. Looking at PointBet’s odds, putting money on South Africa (8-1) and/or Australia (12/1) might be a good idea.
