Can New Jersey’s sportsbooks win their first Super Bowl? Ahead of Super Sunday’s big battle, no question will be troubling them more than this one.
Sports bookmakers always get a bit uneasy when too much money is going one way. And that’s exactly what has been happening ahead of Super Bowl LIII when the New England Patriots play the LA Rams. (See our preview)
Tony Miller, Sportsbook Director at the Golden Nugget Casino in New Jersey, hasn’t seen a booking trend like the current one in years
“I’ve been booking Super Bowls for many, many years, and I’ve never seen such a lopsided handle as we have now,” he said this week.
“For people who say they are tired of the Patriots and Brady, they sure can’t stop betting on them.”
BOOKMAKERS DON’T OFTEN LOSE
Bookmakers don’t often lose. Nevada Sportsbooks have only lost twice in the history of the Super Bowl.
The first time was at Super Bowl XLII (Giants-Patriots in 2008). The second one came in Bowl XXIX in 1995 between the strongly -favored San Francisco 49ers and the San Diego Chargers.
The Nevada bookies almost went down again last year when the Pennsylvania Eagles stunned the Patriots. Prop bets saved them, however, and they squeezed in $1.17 million up.
This year the 12, long-established Nevada sportsbooks will be joined by at least nine more from New Jersey. There will also be two or three each from Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
They were the first to open of the 15 States who have so far been busy legalizing sports betting since the ban on it was lifted by the Supreme Court in mid-2018.
SUPER BOWL’S BETTING HANDLE EXPECTED TO DOUBLE
Between them, it has been estimated that total betting handle for Super Bowl LIII will almost double last year’s record. This from $158.5 million to more than $300 million. Nevada with $180m and New Jersey with $100m are expected to bring in the bulk of this handle.
And a huge amount of it has been going to the Patriots. According to @CGTechnology, the latest data two days before Super Bowl LIII showed the following:
With Spread bets, 70% of the wagers and 79% of the money was on New England
By Money line bets, 62% of the bets were on Los Angeles but 77% of the money on New England
With Total bets, 61% of the bets are on over, 67% of the money on under.
The imbalance in the handle was clearly for two main reasons.
WHY NEW ENGLAND ARE FAVORED TO WIN
Battle-hardened New England will come into the NFL’s biggest game of the year for a third consecutive time. For the Rams, however, it’s their first Super Bowl in 35 years.
Also, there is a vast difference in experience between the teams’ king-pins.
LA’S Sean McVay, 32, is the youngest coach ever to make the Super Bowl, His star quarterback Jared Goff is just 24. Neither has experienced the high tension of a Super Bowl.
Against them, they have the extensively-seasoned Tom Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick sitting in the head coaches’ chair. They were the architects of five Super Bowl triumphs in eight appearances.
It is a general belief of the public that bookmakers are called what they are because of their skill in balancing their books. This in order to eliminate risk and ensure they make a profit.
The Sportsbooks, you might think, only need to move the odds line higher in favor of the Patriots to do this. But can they do this when so many millions of Dollars are riding on the result and so much of it one side? Have they in fact done so?
Not by too much. Late last week, FanDuel’s odds for spread bets were hovering around (+2) 105 for the Rams and (-2) 115 for the Patriots. For money line bets they were -132 for the Patriots and +116 for the Rams while the Totals were 57 -110 for both teams.
On Friday FanDuel’s odds had hardly changed. You can see that in the figures below which contrast their odds with those of William Hill, 888sports and in one instance, DraftKings.
Spread bets
FanDuel; (-2) -115 for New England and (+2) 105 for LA
William Hill: (-3) +100 for NE and (+3) -120 for LA
888sport: (-2.5) -115 for NE and (+2.5) -106 for LA
Money online bets
FanDuel: -132 NE and +116 LA
DraftKings: -137 NE and +118 LA
888sports: -139 NE and -106 LA
William Hill: -140 NE and +120 LA
Totals Bets
FanDuel: (56.5) -105 for NE and (56.5) and -115 for LA
William Hill: (56.5) -110 for NE and (56.5) -110 for LA
888sport: (56.5) -110 for NE and (56.5) -110 for LA
It seems that the bookmakers have taken a position. They expect the Brady-led men from New England to win a tense and bruising battle.
If they don’t, the bookies are going to bleed, possibly even more heavily than ever before. And with Brady and Belichick featuring in a good many of them, even the prop bets may not be enough to save them this time.
SUPER BOWL LIII DETAILS
Contestants: Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium, LA
Time: Sunday, Feb 3, 6.30pm (ET)
Standings: Rams 13-3, Patriot 11-5
