— Wednesday, February 02nd Wisconsin Badgers @ Illinois Fighting Illini
First place in the Big Ten is on the line Wednesday night when the No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers (17-3, 8-2) travel to face the No. 18 Illinois Fighting Illini (15-5, 8-2). Both teams enter the game tied atop the conference with Michigan State, who won at Maryland on Tuesday. Tipoff at the State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois, is set for 9:00 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
This is the only regular-season matchup between these teams this season. Last year Illinois won both games, and both teams were ranked in each meeting, with Illinois winning by 15 at home and by five on the road. Illinois leads the all-time series 113-89, but Wisconsin has won four of the last five in Champaign.
Davis Leads Badgers
The Badgers are 12-8 ATS this season, and the over is 13-7 in their 20 games. They are 8-1 outside Madison with a 5-1 record in true road games. Wisconsin is 3-2 against ranked teams with wins over Purdue, Ohio State, and Houston and losses against Ohio State and Michigan State.
Wisconsin went 7-1 in January, with the only blemish coming at home against the Spartans on January 21, a 12-point loss. They are averaging 72.4 ppg on the season and allowing 66.5. The Badgers shoot 76% from the free-throw line, 40th in the nation, but they allow 34% shooting from 3-point range, ranking in the bottom 50 in the country.
Johnny Davis leads Wisconsin with 21.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, and 2.4 apg. He has scored at least 13 points in every game this season and has gone over 25 points on six occasions, including four times in conference play.
Super senior Brad Davison is averaging 15.7 ppg and shooting 39% from 3-point range with 2.8 made per game. Forward Tyler Wahl is also in double figures at 10.8 ppg with 5.8 rpg, while 7-footer Steven Crawl is at 9.1 ppg and 4.6 rpg. Wahl and Crowl will both attempt to slow down Kofi Cockburn inside.
Illini Excel Through Cockburn
The Illini are just 9-11 ATS on the season, and the over is 12-7-1 in their 20 games. They are 9-2 at home, with the losses coming against Purdue and Arizona. The Illini are 1-2 against ranked teams this season but 22-3 in their last 25 games against Big Ten opponents, including 9-1 at home.
Setting a lineup has been challenging for Brad Underwood, and Illinois leads the nation with nine different starting lineups so far this season. Their projected starters have combined to miss 40 games, and point guard Andre Curbelo is a question mark for Wednesday with illness. He practiced on Tuesday after missing two games due to protocols.
Big man Kofi Cockburn returned against Northwestern after missing two games with a concussion. On the season, he is among the national leaders at 21.1 ppg and 11.6 rpg while shooting 59% from the field. Cockburn had 22 in the win at Northwestern over the weekend and has scored at least 10 in every game he’s played this season, with 13 double-doubles.
Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer has picked up the slack with Curbelo out, averaging 15.8 ppg and shooting 41% from 3-point range. He leads the Illini with 62 3-pointers made at 3.1 per game, 18 more than Trent Frazier. A super senior, Frazier is averaging 13.1 ppg and 3.1 apg, while Jacob Grandison averages 10.7 ppg and shoots 43% from deep.
If Curbelo can play, that makes the Illini deeper and allows them to go at a faster tempo. The sophomore has played in just six games, averaging 10.2 ppg and 4.3 apg.
Betting Analysis
- Wisconsin Badgers +6.5 (-110)
- Illinois Fighting Illini -6.5 (-110)
- Total Points 139.5. Over -110. Under -110
Illinois averages over 41 rebounds per game while Wisconsin averages just 35.3, which should give the Illini extra chances in this game. Frazier has a great defensive pedigree and will be challenged by Davis, but the Badgers will struggle to slow down Cockburn.
The weather is going to be awful with a blizzard headed through the midwest, which could hurt the crowd but look for this game to have plenty of offense.
Betting Pick: Over 139.5 (-110)
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