Media by Associated Press – Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) in action during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
The NFL has a Wild Card game on a Monday night for the second straight season. This matchup will feature several teams with high brand profiles hoping to restore former glory. In the case of the Dallas Cowboys, they finished second in a competitive NFC East division and are seeking their first playoff win since 2018. Tampa Bay has been a strange case this season.
Veteran quarterback Tom Brady returned the Buccaneers won the NFC South Division. However, Tampa Bay’s offense didn’t play well, and the Buccaneers were able to win a weak division with an 8-9 record. Tampa Bay already manhandled Dallas once this season, but that was all the way back in Week 1.
Here’s a look at what to keep an eye out for Monday night.
Cowboys have a pass rush to keep Brady off balance
Micah Parsons has quickly become one of the league’s best pass rushers. The Penn State product and Dallas linebacker finished seventh in the league with 13.5 sacks and forced three fumbles this season. The Cowboys’ defense was in the top 10 in the league against the pass due to the pressure its players up front could generate on opposing quarterbacks.
During Dallas’ 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay early in the season, the Cowboys struggled to stop Tampa Bay’s rushing attack, allowing running back Leonard Fournette to pile up 127 yards on 21 carries. The Buccaneers’ rushing attack ended up finishing worst in the league.
The Cowboys’ offense only finished with 244 yards in the first meeting between the teams. Dallas was 9-7-1 against the spread in the regular season. The Cowboys said the total go over in nine of their 17 games.
Tampa Bay wins ugly, but Bucs have won just enough
Watching the Buccaneers has been a tough assignment, especially for casual viewers. Brady hasn’t been the player he used to be. Tampa Bay was 8-9 overall and 4-12-1 against the spread this season. The Buccaneers were 25th in the league in scoring, putting up 18.4 points per game.
Tampa Bay’s woeful offense was part of the reason that the under hit in 11 of their 17 games. When it comes to how the Buccaneers can win in the postseason, that will all revolve around their defense. Tampa Bay was ninth in the league in yards allowed and ninth against the pass.
The Buccaneers did show vulnerability against the run, which won’t serve them well against Dallas, which can run very well with Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard.
Odds and Prediction
Dallas is a 2.5-point road favorite for this game. The Cowboys are -139 on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay is +123. The over/under has been set at 45.5 points. This is a good setup for Dallas. While the Cowboys were limited to a solitary field goal at home in their first meeting, a lot has changed since then.
Dallas’ offense has improved immensely, and quarterback Dak Prescott is healthy. Tampa Bay looks old and worn. While it is popular to fade the Cowboys for their previous playoff struggles, Dallas will get the job done against the Buccaneers.
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