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— Monday, February 07th Virginia Cavaliers @ Duke Blue Devils
The No.9 Duke Blue Devils are the only ranked team in the ACC, and coming off Coach K’s last-ever trip to rival North Carolina, they look to take a stranglehold on the conference standings. Next up for Duke (19-3, 9-2) are the Virginia Cavaliers (14-9, 8-5), in desperate need of a marquee win. Tip-off Monday at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Since 1950 Duke leads the series 104-38, and they are 7-3 in the last 10. These teams met just once last season, a 66-65 home win for an unranked Duke team against a then No.7 UVA squad. Virginia last won in Durham in 2018 when both teams were in the top 5, and they have won on the road just twice in the last 25 trips.
Not the Same UVA Team
Virginia is 11-12 ATS this season, and they are 3-5 in true road games. With the ACC down this year, the Cavaliers have only played one ranked team, a 67-47 loss at then No. 15 Houston on November 16. They have losses to Navy, James Madison, and Iowa in non-conference play, and their best win came before Thanksgiving, against a then-unranked Providence squad.
UVA has won two straight since losing at Notre Dame to end January. Both conference wins came at home against Boston College and Miami by double digits. They have the best defense in the ACC, allowing just 59.6 ppg in conference play and holding opponents to 41.9% shooting.
Virginia ranks 330th in the nation in scoring at 63.2 ppg, and they are shooting just 33% from deep. The 3-point line has been their Achilles heel on defense as well, allowing 34.7% shooting, 254th in the nation.
Jayden Gardner leads the Cavaliers with 14.3 ppg while Armann Franklin averages 12.3, and Kihei Clark is at 10.0. Gardner also leads the team in rebounding at 6.8, while Kadin Shedrick leads the team with 5.1 apg. Clark (38) and Franklin (33) are the only two Cavaliers with more than 15 made 3-pointers on the season.
Blue Devils Streaking Toward March
Duke is 13-7-2 ATS this season, and the under is 12-9-1 in their 22 games. The Blue Devils are 13-1 at home this season, and they lead the ACC with nearly 40 ppg in the paint.
Duke has won five games in a row since losing at Florida State in overtime on January 18. Four of those wins have come by double digits, and they haven’t allowed more than 69 points since the FSU loss. Overall the defense ranks 58th in scoring at 64.8 ppg allowed, and they are top 40 in 3-point defense at 30%.
Freshman Paolo Banchero leads the way with 17.5 ppg and 8.4 rpg. He had 13 in the win at UNC Saturday and has scored at least 11 points in every game this season. Banchero has gone over 20 points nine times and has six double-doubles.
Wendell Moore Jr. is averaging 14.2 ppg while Trevor Keels (11.4), A.J. Griffin (10.0), and Mark Williams (10.0) are also in double figures. Moore leads the team with 4.5 apg, while Williams has 7.0 rpg and 3.1 bpg. Griffin leads Duke with 36 3-pointers made while shooting 50%, and he had 27 against UNC.
Betting Analysis
- Virginia Cavaliers +11.5 (-110)
- Duke Blue Devils -11.5 (-110)
- Total Points: 129. Over -110. Under -110
Duke averages 81 ppg, 15th in the nation, and it will be hard for Virginia to keep up as they have topped 70 just twice in the last ten games. The Blue Devils can play slow, too, as evidenced by their 57-43 win at Notre Dame last Monday. Virginia won’t have an answer for Banchero, and if Griffin gets going from deep, the Dukies will roll.
Betting Pick: Duke -11.5 (-110)
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