— Saturday, April 02nd Villanova Wildcats @ Kansas Jayhawks
The first Final Four game on Saturday gives us the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-6) against the No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (30-7). Both teams won their conference tournaments this season and now meet up in a rematch of a 2018 Final Four game. Tipoff on Saturday is set for 6:09 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, airing on TBS.
These teams last met in December 2019; a 57-56 Villanova win, and Kansas won at home 74-71 a year before. The teams played in the 2018 Final Four, with Villanova winning 95-79 en route to their second title in three years. The Wildcats beat Kansas in the 2016 Elite Eight, and the Jayhawks won a matchup in the 2008 Sweet Sixteen.
Gillespie Leads Nova
Villanova is 20-16-1 ATS this season, and the under is 20-17 in their 37 games. They are 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and the under is 5-1 in their last six games. Villanova is 18-6 away from home and 10-1 in neutral site games after winning the Big East Championship at Madison Square Garden.
A key for Villanova on Saturday will be behind the arc, where they struggled against Houston in the Elite Eight. On the season, the Wildcats shot 36.6% from 3-point range, and Kansas held opponents to 29.7% shooting from deep. Simply put, you can’t beat Kansas without knocking down the outside shots.
Conor Gillespie has hit 108 3-pointers on the season and leads the Wildcats with 15.6 ppg. Villanova made just 5-of-21 from deep against Houston, with Gillespie going 0-for-4. Against Michigan, in the Sweet 16, they were 9-of-39 with Gillespie making 4-of-10, and they made 21 combined from deep in the first two rounds.
Villanova will have to adjust without Justin Moore, who injured his leg late in the Elite Eight win. The junior guard averages 14.8 ppg and 2.3 apg on the season and is second on the team with 80 3-pointers made. Only six players get more than 25 minutes per game so expect Caleb Daniels to start in place of Moore.
The Wildcats shot 82.5% from the line this season, the best in the nation. They were a perfect 15-for-15 against Houston, and they are 53-for-59 (89.8%) in the tournament with a chance at the overall record.
Kansas Getting It Done in Clutch
Kansas is 19-18-1 ATS this season, and the over is 20-18 in their 38 games. They are 2-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, covering in the first round and the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks are 10-1 in neutral site games this season, with the only loss coming to Dayton during the Thanksgiving ESPN Events Invitational.
Kansas ranks 29th in the nation at 78.6 ppg on offense, and they shoot 48%, ranked 23rd in the nation. The Jayhawks shoot 36.1% from 3-point range while allowing just 29.7% from deep. If it comes down to a free throw battle, Kansas shoots just 71% from the line, and none of their regulars are over 80% individually.
A National Player of the Year finalist, Ochai Agbaji leads Kansas with 18.9 ppg and shoots 40% from the three-point range. He had 18 points against Miami in the Elite Eight after struggling with just five points in the win over Providence.
Christian Braun had 12 points against Miami, while David McCormack and 15. Remy Martin had a great game off the bench against Providence with 23 points, while Jalen Wilson had a 16 point/11 rebound double-double.
The Jayhawks’ defense has been great in the tournament. They held Texas Southern to 32.8% shooting and Creighton to 35.6% in the first two rounds. Providence shot 33.8% in the Sweet 16, and Miami shot 34.5% on Sunday, while Kansas is +46 on the glass in the tournament.
Braun averages 14.3 ppg on the season, while Wilson is at 11.0 to go with 7.4 rpg. McCormack averages 10.1 ppg and 6.8 rpg. Agbaji has made 96 3-pointers on the season, while Braun has 49.
Betting Analysis
- Villanova Wildcats +4 (-110). Money Line +150
- Kansas Jayhawks -4 (-110). Money Line -180
- Total Points 133 Over -110. under -110
Villanova’s defense has been locked in so far in the tournament, and Kansas held Miami to 15 points in the second half on Sunday. Both teams are comfortable playing in the half-court offense, and it will be interesting to see how an already thin Wildcats team plays without Moore. Look for points to be at a premium in this game, especially early.
Betting Pick: Under 133 (-110)
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