Media by Associated Press – Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) hands off to running back Blake Corum (2) during an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
This week’s slate of college football games brings six Top 25 matchups, including two Top-10 tilts. The biggest games on the schedule are No. 6 Tennessee v. No. 3 Alabama and No. 5 Michigan v. No. 10 Penn State. Both will go a long way to determining participants in the SEC and Big Ten Championships Games and, ultimately, the playoff.
Michigan -7
Let’s start with the Wolverines. The Penn State Nittany Lions are 5-0 but have looked shaky on conference play against Purdue and Northwestern. They won at Purdue by four and trailed late, and scored just 17 on Northwestern two weeks ago.
They did show up in Auburn and thrashed the Tigers 41-12, so we know PSU can score, but can they do it consistently enough at the Big House? Not likely, as Michigan has allowed more than 14 points just once this season, and they have scored at least 27 in all six wins.
The Wolverines haven’t been home since September 24, and the crowd will be electric. Look for Michigan to pressure Sam Clifford into mistakes and cover the -7.
Tennessee +7.5
This game could, and should, be a shootout. Especially if Bryce Young is back for Alabama, as expected. This rivalry hasn’t mattered outside of Knoxville and Tuscaloosa in a long time, as the Tide have won 15 straight. The only time both teams were ranked since 2006 is when No. 1 Alabama beat No. 9 Tennessee 49-10 in 2016.
The Vols haven’t stayed within 20 since a 19-14 loss in 2015. But this year, they are rolling, and they seem to have regained that Rocky Top magic with quarterback Hendon Hooker, who has yet to throw an interception. If Tennessee can take care of the ball and get to Young, they can stay in this game and keep the big, enthusiastic crowd in the game.
Nebraska +13.5
Off the beaten path a little for this one as the Cornhuskers get 13.5 points at Purdue. Surprisingly, this game is for first place in the Big Ten West, with Illinois also at 2-1.
Both of these teams love close games. Nebraska is 1-2 in games decided by three points or less, and they have only played two games all season, decided by more than 14. Purdue hasn’t played any games against a FBS team decided by less than ten, and their home games have been decided by two and four.
Both starting quarterbacks turn the ball over with frequency, and both teams can score. Take the points and expect a close game, decided by a late mistake.
Florida -2.5
The Gators are phenomenal at running the ball. They are averaging 214 yards per game on the ground and 6.4 yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns. While the passing game hasn’t yet caught up, the line is built to pound teams up the middle, and that’s exactly what Florida did to Missouri last week with 231 yards on the ground and only one penalty.
LSU couldn’t do anything to slow down Tennessee at home last week and seemed more focused on complaining about the early start time. After allowing 263 yards on the ground to the Vols, LSU will have to figure things out before Saturday, or they are in for a repeat performance.
Look for the Gators to come out on a mission to get back to .500 in SEC play as they cover the -2.5
Oklahoma State +4
This is another of the Top 25 matchups as No. 8 Oklahoma State heads to No. 13 TCU, getting four points. TCU has had a pair of phenomenal weeks, thrashing Oklahoma on national TV and then winning in Kansas with College Gameday in attendance. But the Cowboys are arguably the best and most complete team TCU has seen yet.
TCU knocked out Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels and then saw his backup, Jason Bean, throw for 262 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 34 yards. The Cowboys and veteran QB Spencer Sanders had to love watching that tape this week. Sanders has completed 62% of his passes for 8.2 yards per catch and 12 touchdowns to go with only two interceptions.
Look for Oklahoma State to score early and often, turning this game into a shootout as they cover in Fort Worth.
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