Media by Associated Press – TCU quarterback Max Duggan (15) scrambles against Texas during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Stephen Spillman)
The final weekend of college football before the Thanksgiving rivalry weekend gives us plenty of options for games to bet on. There are a lot of teams playing out of conference or going up against lower division teams before their rivalry games. These games can have bigger spreads but still provide value.
There are no top-25 matchups in the weekend, but here are the top five teams to bet on in Week 12.
TCU -2.5
The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 4 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings. They have no margin for error, with Tennessee right behind them.
TCU is coming off a huge road win over Texas, and they appear to be completely focused on the task at hand, making the Big 12 Championship Game undefeated for a chance at the playoffs.
TCU heads across the state to Baylor this week, favored by just 2.5 points. They are 7-3-1 ATS this season and now face a Bears team that scored just three points last week in a brutal home loss to Kansas State.
Baylor has allowed over 450 yards per game over the last month, and they are 3-3 since peaking at No. 16 at the start of October.
TCU won 17-10 at Texas last week after beating Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Kansas State by 10 points each. Quarterback Max Duggan has 11 touchdowns and one interception in his last five games, and Kendre Miller has five straight 100+ games. Both should have their way with Baylor’s defense.
Louisville -4
Yes, Louisville is unranked, and NC State is ranked. Yet the Cardinals are still the favorites at -4 in this home game. Louisville couldn’t take down Clemson on the road last week, but they beat Pittsburgh, No. 10 Wake Forest, and previously ranked James Madison in their last three home games.
Meanwhile, No. 24 NC State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and they lost outright to Syracuse and Boston College in that stretch. They could be looking ahead to a rivalry game next week at UNC, as neither of these teams are still alive in the ACC Championship Game race.
Michigan -18
This game lost some of its luster the last two weeks as Illinois fell flat on its face at home against both Michigan State and Purdue.
The Illini are no longer ranked, and they no longer control their own destiny in the Big Ten West race. At No. 3, Michigan is unbeaten, and they have everything in front of them to return to the playoffs.
The biggest risk in Michigan -18 is that with a big lead, the Wolverines could start pulling players off the field in the second half to avoid injuries and targeting suspensions ahead of the Ohio State showdown next weekend.
On the field, Michigan has won their last five games by at least 21 points, and they have scored at least 27 in every game this season. Illinois hasn’t topped 27 since October 1, and while their defense has good numbers, they gave up 31 to Purdue last week at home and will have their hands full in Ann Arbor.
Georgia -22.5
It is hard to imagine a Kentucky team that lost at home to Vanderbilt last week, having much left in the tank for the No. 1 team in the country.
It seems like a distant memory since the Wildcats were No. 10 with SEC East champion dreams. Had they not escaped Missouri with a 21-17 win, UK would be staring at a 1-5 mark in their last six games.
Georgia has the playoffs and a repeat in their sights. In the last six games, the Bulldogs have hammered Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Mississippi State while also beating Tennessee by 14. The only close game they have played all season was a 26-22 win at Missouri, and they covered last week at MSU by 11 points.
Stetson Bennett and Ladd McConkey have developed quite the deep threat combination in November. Meanwhile, the run game averages just under 200 yards per game, while the defense hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game this season. Take the Bulldogs, give the points.
Kansas State -7.5
The No. 19 Kansas State Wildcats are two wins away from facing TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. They could clinch a berth on Saturday if they win at West Virginia and Texas loses to Kansas. Meanwhile, West Virginia needs to win out to be bowl eligible.
The Wildcats are giving 7.5 points but are also 3-1 on the road in Big 12 play this season, and they just dominated Baylor 31-3 on the road last Saturday.
West Virginia is 3-2 at home with losses to Kansas and TCU. K-State has allowed more than 10 points just twice in the last five games, and they lost both of those games.
Keep up with your latest NCAAF news coverage and betting pick previews at NJSportsbookReview.com.