Media by Associated Press – Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) catches the ball before a NFL preseason football game against the Washington Commanders, Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Every NFL team talks about hope and confidence in the preseason, but let’s face it, a handful of teams are going to be dreadful. The trick with betting over/unders in August for future bets is to identify those teams that are going to struggle for the next four months.
Let’s take a look at the five teams most likely to go under their win totals in 2022, in no particular order.
Panthers Under 6.5
This might be it for head coach Matt Rhule, the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired in 2022. The Panthers are -110 to win under 6.5 games, and it is hard to find much to like about this team. They have two cast-offs at quarterback with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield competing to be the starter, and neither inspires confidence.
Running back Christian McCaffrey has averaged five games per season since 2019. What can be expected of the Panthers’ start back, and will he once again be on injured reserve more than he’s on the field scoring touchdowns. If he is back, the question is if the line is able to keep him healthy, as they ranked in the bottom five in the NFL last year.
Keep in mind the defense is also atrocious. Last year they allowed the second most yards per game in the NFL. They were also in the bottom 10 in points allowed, a dreadful combination and a team likely to end with under six wins in 2022.
Giants Under 7.5
Last year the New York Giants won four games, and they are -110 to win under 7.5 in 2022. Like the Carolina Panthers, the Giants’ season depends on 17 games of a healthy star running back, and again, that seems too much to ask. Saquon Barkley has scored two touchdowns and run for 627 yards combined in the last two seasons and still isn’t 100 percent.
The Giants are also running it back with Daniel Jones this season. The former first-round pick is 12-25 in his Giants career with 29 interceptions in 37 starts. Last year he missed six games and was sacked more than two times per game when he was healthy. The line can’t protect him, and his weapons are uninspiring at best.
Overall last year, the Giants’ offense ranked 31st in yards, 31st in rushing touchdowns, 30th in passing touchdowns, and led the league in turnovers. Jason Garrett is gone as offensive coordinator, but they just didn’t do enough to make you think this team can double the win output from 2021.
Jets Under 5.5
We have definitely seen quarterbacks make the year two leap, see Burrow, Joe. But the Jets are already dealing with a Zach Wilson non-contact injury in training camp. Even if it isn’t as serious as once feared, the injury has cost Wilson precious reps and time with his teammates.
Add in the fractured kneecap for tackle Mekhi Becton, and the Jets offense is in disarray before the season starts. The AFC East is no picnic with six games against Buffalo, New England, and Miami, and the Jets will likely be underdogs in all of those games. They also begin the year with games against the four AFC North teams and will be underdogs in at least three of those.
Trips to Green Bay, Minnesota, Denver, and Seattle dot the schedule as well, making it tough to find six wins for Robert Saleh’s team. Last year they were 4-13, so they need to add two wins to beat this number. Look for the Jets to go under 5.5 wins at -130.
Steelers Under 7.5
It is weird to project the Pittsburgh Steelers to have a losing season, something head coach Mike Tomlin has never done. But he’s also never started a season without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, and with the future Hall of Famer retired, the Steelers will struggle. They are -120 to go under 7.5 wins in 2022.
Without Big Ben, the Steelers are looking at a season with Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph as the only experience at quarterback. Rookie Kenny Pickett is the future, but do the Steelers want him starting from day one behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league? Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is also gone, and Chase Claypool took a big step backward in 2021.
Linebacker T.J. Watt gets the headlines, but the Steelers defense ranked 24th in yards allowed and 22nd in scoring last year. They gave up the most rushing yards in the league last year and got outscored by 53 points on the season.
Commanders Under 8
The Washington Commanders haven’t had a winning season under Ron Rivera, but they have made the playoffs at 7-9. A seven-win season this year means they hit the under at -120 on this bet.
Terry McLaurin is a great wideout, but the Commanders are counting on Carson Wentz to get him and tight end Logan Thomas the ball. Wentz lasted just one year in Indianapolis with a 9-8 record and now plays behind a worse offensive line and has Antonio Gibson at running back, not Jonathan Taylor.
Chase Young was hurt for the last half of 2021, and the defense is young. They ranked 22nd in yards allowed and 25th in points allowed last year.
The Commanders gave up the most passing touchdowns in the league in 2021 and the third-most passing yards. With an offense that ranked 23rd in scoring, that was a dangerous combination, and this year won’t be much better.
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