Media by Associated Press – Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half of an NFL football game, Saturday, Aug. 27, 2022, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
Week 1 of the NFL season can be one of the toughest to bet. With new players and coaches in different spots and teams building chemistry, it can be tough to handicap. Just look at last season when Kansas City barely beat Cleveland, Green Bay got crushed by New Orleans, Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and San Francisco had to escape against Detroit. All four of those teams turned out just fine over the long haul.
However, that’s not always the case. Let’s take a look at the top four teams to bet against in Week 1.
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 v. New Orleans
A lot is going against Atlanta to start the season. Calvin Ridley is suspended, Matt Ryan is in Indianapolis, they still don’t have an every down running back, and there’s a new coaching staff. The offense may eventually be better and more adventurous with Marcos Mariota or rookie Desmond Ritter, but in Week 1, expect them to be shaky against the New Orleans Saints.
On the other side of the ball, Alvin Kamara is healthy to start the season for New Orleans, and Michael Thomas is back. Jameis Winston was very accurate last year when healthy and didn’t turn the ball over nearly as much as he did in Tampa Bay. Look for the Saints to start the season with a win by more than a touchdown and bet against Atlanta.
Chicago Bears +7 v. San Francisco
Yes, the Bears are at home, but that is about the only advantage they have in this matchup against one of last year’s final four teams. There is a massive gap in talent on both sides of the ball, especially in the trenches. And the 49ers have Kyle Shanahan on the sidelines while the Bears have a rookie head coach.
Quarterback Justin Fields may indeed make the leap this season, but expecting big things against the 49ers’ defense in the opener is foolish. Nick Bosa had 15.5 sacks last year in a breakout campaign, and the 49ers allowed the third-fewest yards on the season. Even with Trey Lance learning on the job, San Francisco has what it takes to cover the number against a bad Chicago team.
Detroit Lions +4 v. Philadelphia
Everyone is loving Detroit right now because of Hard Knocks, but they still don’t have enough pieces to compete. Last year the Eagles beat them 44-6 and ran for 236 yards in the process. Aidan Hutchinson is a difference maker on the line for Detroit, but they didn’t do enough around him to stop teams like the Eagles.
On offense, they have some solid pieces in D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and T.J Hockenson. But they still ranked 25th in scoring last season and 31st in scoring defense. Jared Goff had just 19 touchdown passes in 14 starts, and Swift led the team with only five rushing touchdowns.
Dan Campbell has the right attitude and seems to be building something in Detroit, but this line is off. Take the Eagles and fade the Lions in the opener.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 v. Tampa Bay
Betting against Brady in the opener? No chance. Dallas won’t have Michael Gallup to start the season, and Amari Cooper is gone. Both teams are hurting on the offensive line, but that may impact Dak Prescott and the Cowboys more than it will Brady and the Bucs.
Dallas started last year with a loss against Tampa Bay, and this year should be no different. Tampa Bay is hopeful Chris Godwin is cleared to play, giving Brady more weapons as he challenges a strong Dallas secondary that led the league in interceptions last year with 26. However, they still finished 19th in yards allowed and 20th against the pass.
Brady will be ready to go, and he’s fared well against Mike McCarthy coached teams in his career. Look for the Bucs to cover Sunday night.
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