Media by Associated Press – Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander walks to the dugout during a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
As August winds down, most starting pitchers in MLB have eight or nine starts remaining. That gives the best pitchers in the league a handful of innings on which to impress Cy Young voters and make their final case to win the 2022 award.
In the American League, the top contender is two-time winner Justin Verlander, though he has some competition. Let’s take a look at the top four contenders in the American League and see if it will be a first-time winner or the future Hall of Famer.
Verlander the Favorite
At -200, Verlander remains the favorite as he’s been through most of the season. In his comeback season, Verlander has flat-out dominated. Despite throwing just six innings since the 2019 playoffs, the 39-year-old picked up where he left off when he won the Cy Young in 2019.
Verlander leads the American League with 15 wins, and with just three losses, his .833 win percentage is also tops. He leads the league in ERA at 1.95 in 22 starts, ranks fourth in innings pitched (143), and eighth in strikeouts (138).
Pitching on the Houston Astros with the best record in the American League also helps Verlander’s quest for a third Cy Young. He has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts and is 5-0 with a 1.77 ERA since the end of June.
Cease A Contender
Chicago White Sox fans have been waiting for Dylan Cease to become the ace, and the 26-year-old has taken that step this year. At 12-5, he’s one win away from a career-high and is now +250 to win the Cy Young. Cease is on pace for career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts, and he’s lowered his ERA by nearly two full points from last year.
He leads AL pitchers with a 4.5 WAR and ranks second to Verlander with 12 wins and a 2.09 ERA. Cease leads the AL in strikeouts per nine IP at 11.9 and is second overall in strikeouts with 178. If Cease can help pitch the White Sox to the playoffs and Verlander takes a couple of losses in September, he could be Chicago’s first winner since 1993.
McClanahan’s Chances Fading
As recently as the end of July, Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan was the AL Cy Young favorite. But now, as August fades away, the 25-year-old is +950 to win the award. The second-year Major Leaguer is 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA and 173 strikeouts.
McClanahan leads the AL in WHIP at 0.863, ranks fourth in pitcher WAR, third in ERA, and third in strikeouts. The downfall for McClanahan has been the second half of the season. He was 10-3 with a 1.71 ERA at the All-Star break, but in his last five starts, the Rays righty is 1-2 with a 4.40 ERA.
The Rays are in contention, and McClanahan will have plenty of big games to start down the stretch in the AL East. But at this point, there may be too much ground to make up against Verlander and Cease.
Ohtani a Long Shot
Last year’s American League Most Valuable Player, Shohei Ohtani, is +3500 to win the Cy Young this year. The Cy Young will always be harder for Ohtani since he doesn’t get as many innings as the other front-line starting pitchers with the Angels’ six-man rotation.
Ohtani ranks third in the American League in pitcher WAR, and he’s fifth in strikeouts with a career-high 165. He is tied for eighth with ten wins, which is also a new career high. While the losses are higher this season, Ohtani will finish 2022 with pitching career-highs in wins, ERA, starts, innings, and strikeouts.
The Cy Young is the last individual award Ohtani needs to complete the trifecta of the Rookie of the Year and the MVP awards. Last year he didn’t get any Cy Young votes, and while he won’t win the award in 2022, he should get enough votes to finish in the top four.
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