Media by Associated Press – St. Louis Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar (21) plays during a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
With the MLB schedule into September and less than 40 games remaining for most teams, only two of the divisions have a real race. And even in the NL East, whoever doesn’t win the division will be a Wild Card team. That leaves only the AL Central as a race where only one of the teams is likely to make the playoffs.
All season long, there has been a clear top four in World Series odds; the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, and New York Mets have been at the top for most of the 2022 season. But the playoffs will have 14 teams, so let’s take a look at three dark horses that could be lifting the trophy in November.
St. Louis Cardinals +2200
These odds for the St. Louis Cardinals won’t get better value than they are right now. The Cardinals are playing phenomenal baseball and have gone ten games better than Milwaukee since early July. St. Louis is 26-11 since the All-Star Game, and they were 22-7 in August.
The Cardinals not only have the likely NL MVP in Paul Goldschmidt, but they also have the feel-good story of the 2022 season. Albert Pujols is closing in on 700 career home runs and has turned back the clock. If he, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright can bring back some magic, the Cardinals can send them out in style.
Since the All-Star Break, Nolan Arenado is batting .344 with ten homers, 30 RBI, and a .687 slugging. Goldschmidt is hitting .336 with 13 homers, 35 RBI, and a .688 slugging, and Pujols is hitting .372 with nine homers, 21 RBI, and a .782 slugging.
As a team, the Cardinals are batting a MLB-best .275 since the All-Star Game and lead the league with 65 home runs in 37 games. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs since the break.
A wild card here is pitcher Jack Flaherty. If the former ace can bounce back and give the team something down the stretch to pair with trade acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, the rotation gains depth. Avoiding the Dodgers until the NLCS is a key to the Cardinals’ odds as well, and they would do that as division champs.
Tampa Bay Rays +3000
Most of the baseball gave the Yankees the AL East title back in May. But here come the Rays and Blue Jays, closing the gap to six games. Tampa Bay went 18-9 in August with the best ERA in the American League at 2.85.
If they don’t catch the Yankees, Tampa will be in the Wild Card spot. That means they either host the #5 seed or travel to the AL Central champion. A second-round matchup with either the Yankees or Astros looms, but remember, this Rays team has playoff experience, including a series win over the Yankees.
Tampa Bay has three players batting over .300 since August 1, and they have also gotten Manny Margot back from the injured list. Harold Ramirez has also returned with a .339 average in 14 games in August. Getting healthy is a big key to the Rays having a run in October.
Pitcher Shane McClanahan landed on the IL this week, and they definitely need their young ace to be ready to go in the postseason. The bullpen has been fantastic, with Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, and Colin Poche all posting sub-2.00 ERA since August 1.
Drew Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts, and Corey Kluber has the big-game experience to help the Rays deep into October.
The AL Central champ
This is a bit of a cop-out since it is impossible to pick either Cleveland or Minnesota. The second-place team in the AL Central is unlikely to make the playoffs. However, the champion will be the #3 seed and have a home field in the first round.
The Guardians are +4000 to win the World Series, and the Twins are +7500. Minnesota has the third-best home record in the American League, and if they win the first round, it could be a tough out in cold weather for a warm-weather team like Houston. Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy lead the rotation, and Minnesota has Jorge Lopez in the back end with four saves since August 1.
The Guardians have a MVP candidate in Jose Ramirez, that can carry a lineup through a short series. They also boast a fantastic bullpen as Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Nick Sandin, Envel De Los Santos, and Sam Hentges all have ERA under 1.10 since August 1. Cal Quantrill and Shane Bieber lead the rotation, with a young Triston McKenzie coming into his own as well.
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