Media by Associated Press – Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb celebrates catching a pass for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)
Again this year, Thanksgiving gives us three NFL games to watch and bet on throughout the day. Starting in Detroit and ending in Minnesota, two of the games this year are AFC East at NFC North, with a NFC East rivalry game sandwiched in the middle in Dallas. Let’s find three bets to make on NFL games for Thanksgiving Day.
CeeDee Lamb over 68.5 Rec Yards
With Dak Prescott back and healthy, CeeDee Lamb is taking advantage. Lamb has been the top target for Prescott in the last four games, and he’s topped 70 yards in three of those four games. The exception was last week when he caught all five targets for 45 yards in a 40-3 win over the Vikings, as Dallas stopped throwing the ball late in the game.
Overall in the last four games, Lamb has 33 targets, and he has hauled in 25 receptions. That gives Lamb 76% receptions on targets, and he has tallied 342 yards in those four games for 13.7 yards per catch. He also has three touchdowns in the last four games, as Dallas has put 35.3 ppg on the board.
With a short week and the New York Giants coming to town for a Thanksgiving showdown, look for Dallas to get the ball to Lamb early and often. The Giants allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to get seven catches for 76 yards on Sunday, and starting cornerback Adoree Jackson sprained his MCL. Jackson will miss the next month, and starter Fabian Moreau missed Monday’s practice with an oblique injury.
With the Cowboys’ offense heating up, look for Lamb to get his fair share of targets on Thursday and hit the over 68.5 yards at -110.
Patriots/Vikings Under 42.5
The nightcap on Thursday is the New England Patriots at the Minnesota Vikings in a cross-conference matchup. The Patriots have won three straight to get back into the AFC playoff picture, while the Vikings were embarrassed 40-3 against Dallas on Sunday. Minnesota remains with a strong hold on the NFC North at 8-2, leading Detroit by four games.
Neither of these teams scored an offensive touchdown on Sunday. Minnesota managed just a field goal, gave up seven sacks, and had less than 200 yards of offense. They now play another elite defense on short rest, as the Patriots have allowed 23 points total in their last three games.
New England did move the ball against the Jets, but they were 0-for-2 in the red zone and just 4-of-16 combined on third and fourth down conversions. They didn’t turn the ball over and should be able to run the ball against the Vikings, but they need to get things sorted out in the final third.
Both of these teams have good kickers and strong special teams. That could be the difference in this game Thursday night, as points will be at a premium. Take the under and root for the defenses.
Bills/Lions Over 54.5
On the flip side, we have two strong offenses in the first game on Thursday as Buffalo visits Detroit. The Bills play their second straight game at Ford Field, where they beat Cleveland 31-23 on Sunday.
Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in two straight games, and they have put at least 24 on the board in five of the last six games. Josh Allen is a bonafide MVP candidate with 2,930 passing yards, and 21 touchdown passes on the season. He’s run less in recent games but still has the ability to get it done on the ground as well.
The Lions have scored 31 points in two straight games, both on the road. Interestingly enough, the offense has been worse at home, but quarterback Jared Goff hasn’t turned the ball over in three of the last four games. Jamal Williams ran for three touchdowns in the win over the Giants, and the run game has accounted for 390 yards in the last three games.
This is an early kickoff, but look for the offenses to be ready to go. The defenses haven’t been great on either side of this game recently, and points should be plentiful on Thanksgiving day.
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