Media by Associated Press – Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) congratulates wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) after scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Kirk Irwin)
Week 13 of the NFL season ends with a NFC South rivalry showdown as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints. Tampa Bay won in New Orleans 20-10 earlier this season, and they go for the sweep Monday, which would also keep them in first place in the NFC South. The Saints are 4-8, but a win on Sunday ties them in the win column with the Bucs.
Let’s take a look at three bets to make on Monday Night Football as Tom Brady and the Bucs host the Saints.
Chris Godwin over 67.5 Yards
Since returning to the lineup, Godwin has had at least eight targets and six catches. He has more yards in the last seven games than all NFL wideouts except Davante Adams. Last week he caught 12 balls on 13 targets for 110 yards against Cleveland.
Godwin has topped 67.5 yards in two straight games and three of the last four. He’s not always the red zone target for Brady, but he does the heavy lifting between the 20s, and that adds up to a lot of yards.
The Saints have a good secondary, but they give up more than 40% of the receiving yards against them to slot receivers. Godwin has a 70% catch rate and if Marshon Lattimore returns from an abdomen injury to lock town Mike Evans, look for Godwin to be the go-to target of Brady on Monday night.
Tom Brady Under 272 Yards
Sticking with the Bucs’ passing game, look at the Brady under here. He has topped 250 against the Saints just twice in his last five regular season games. In September, he was 18-for-34 against New Orleans with 190 yards.
Not just against the Saints either; Brady just isn’t throwing for a lot of yards this season. He has topped 272 just once in the last three weeks, going for 246 last week in Cleveland and 258 the week before against Seattle. On the season, he’s gone over 272 yards in five of the 11 games, and the Bucs are 2-3 in those five games.
The Saints have allowed just 176 passing yards per game this season against all opponents. Their offense can’t score, so it keeps games close, but they are able to slow down the Tampa pass game and make the hosts beat them on the ground.
Saints +3.5
The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS as home favorites this season and 3-7-1 ATS overall. Games between these teams have been close, with the under hitting in four of the last six games and the Saints winning four of the last six games.
The defenses are likely to control this game. Brady has more than one passing TD in just one game against the Saints since joining Tampa, and running back Leonard Fournette is banged up. If Lattimore is back to slow down Evans, this could shape up to be a field position game.
Andy Dalton struggled last week against San Francisco as the Saints were shut out. Alvin Kamara will have a tough go of it on the ground, as Tampa allows 98 yards per game on the ground. Look for both teams to grind it out and avoid the mistakes, as this one comes down to a late field goal and a Saints cover.
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