— Tuesday, December 28th Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
The college bowl schedule has been flipped upside down by COVID this season, but one of the highly anticipated reunion games is still on as scheduled. The Autozone Liberty Bowl features a reunion of sorts as Texas Tech (6-6) faces old coach Mike Leach and Mississippi State (7-5) in an SEC/Big 12 showdown. Tuesday’s kickoff is set for 6:45 p.m. ET at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee, and it will be televised by ESPN.
These teams have met seven times in their history, with MSU leading the series 4-2-1, but they haven’t played since 1970 and have never met in a bowl game. Texas Tech is 14-23-1 all-time in bowl games with losses in their last two appearances, in 2015 and 2017. MSU is 14-10 in their bowl history with a win last December in the Armed Forces bowl, and Leach is 7-8 as a coach in bowl games.
Red Raiders A Team in Flux
Texas Tech is 6-5-1 ATS this season, and the under is 7-5 in their games. They finished the regular season with losses to top 10 teams in Oklahoma State and Baylor and have lost four of the last five with setbacks to Oklahoma and Kansas State. The defense ranks 118th against the pass (265.6 ypg) and allows 32.3 ppg while the offense scores 30.3 ppg.
The Red Raiders have had quarterback issues since Henry Colombi, who has since entered the transfer portal, went down in October and coach Matt Wells was fired. Freshman Donovan Smith started against Baylor and threw for 262 yards and two scores while also throwing for 323 yards in the upset of Iowa State. Smith has 929 yards passing with six touchdowns and two interceptions in four starts.
Top wideout Erik Ezukanma with 705 yards and four touchdowns has opted out of the bowl game, while Myles Price, Loic Fouonji, and tight end Travis Koontz are all battling injuries. That leaves Kaylon Geiger with 39 catches for 524 yards and one touchdown as the top option on Tuesday night.
The running attack has been led by Tahj Brooks and Sarodorick Thompson. Brooks has 461 yards at a 6.5 average per carry, and he’s scored six touchdowns on the season. Thompson has 420 yards and nine touchdowns, but he only had one carry against Baylor and five against Oklahoma State.
Rogers Leads Bulldogs Offense
Mississippi State went 7-5 ATS this season, and the total was 6-6 in their 12 games. They haven’t played since a Thanksgiving loss to rivals Ole Miss, and they finished the regular season 4-2 over the last six games, with the other loss coming to Alabama. The passing game ranks 3rd in the nation at 385 ypg while the defense is 10th against the run, allowing just 101.2 per game.
Will Rogers took off late in the season to lead the Mississippi State offense. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards in 10 straight games and topped 400 three times. Rogers tossed five touchdown passes against Tennessee State and six against No. 17 Auburn in November and has 35 on the season to go with 4,449 passing yards and only eight interceptions.
MSU has a great receiving corps, led by Makai Polk, who has 98 catches for 989 yards and three touchdowns. In the last four games, he has 43 catches for 386 yards. Jaden Walley has 52 catches for 670 yards and six touchdowns on the season, while Austin Williams has 47 catches for 543 yards and four scores.
Running back Delon Johnson leads the team with 423 yards and a 5.3 average. Jo’Quavious Marks has 397 yards and six touchdowns while also featuring in the passing game with 79 catches and four more touchdowns.
Betting Analysis
- Texas Tech Red Raiders +10 (-115) Money line +480
- Mississippi State Bulldogs -10 (-105) Money line -385
- Total Points 58.5 Over -105, under -115
Texas Tech, with all their opt-outs and coaching changes, is ill-equipped to compete with the firepower of Mississippi State in this one. They were outmanned by top teams this season and will struggle to contain Rogers all game. The MSU defense can also give up big plays as they did against Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas, so the over is the play in this one.
Betting Pick: Over 58.5 points (-105)
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