— Saturday, March 05th Texas Longhorns @ Kansas Jayhawks
The Big 12 regular-season title and the top seed in the tournament are on the line Saturday. The No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks (24-6, 13-4) can clinch at least a tie with Baylor if they win at home against the No. 21 Texas Longhorns (21-9, 10-7). A win should get Kansas the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament by virtue of the conference tiebreakers, and they haven’t been the top seed in a contested tournament since 2018.
Saturday’s return matchup is set for 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN from Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence. The Longhorns scored the final seven points of the game to beat Kansas 79-76 in February. The Jayhawks are 6-4 in the last ten games against Texas, but the Longhorns have won three straight, including a trip to Allen Fieldhouse in February 2021.
Longhorns Lockdown on Defense
Texas is 12-18 ATS this season with four straight losses against the spread, and the under is 16-14 in their 30 games. They are 5-6 away from home, including 4-6 in true road games.
Texas ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 59.1 ppg. They are also top 75 in field goal percentage defense (41.6) and 3-point defense (31.5). On offense, Texas has struggled to just 68 ppg, which ranks 238th in the nation, and they shoot 32% from the 3-point range.
In the win over Kansas, Timmy Allen had a season-high 24 points to go with nine rebounds, and he put the Longhorns up for good with a basket in the final 20 seconds. Tre Mitchell had 17 against Kansas while Marcus Carr and Andrew Jones both scored 10 points. Courtney Ramey is the best defender, and he held Kansas star Ochai Agbaji to just 11 points on seven shots in the first meeting.
On the season, Allen leads the team with 12.3 ppg and 6.5 rebounds per game. Carr (11.2) and Jones (10.9) are also in double figures scoring, while the former leads the team with 3.2 apg. Jones has made 47 3-pointers, six more than Ramey.
Kansas Offense Back in Gear
Kansas is 13-16-1 ATS this season, and the over is 17-13 in their 30 games. They are 15-1 at Allen Fieldhouse on the season and undefeated against Big 12 competition at home. The lone loss came against Kentucky in the SEC/Big 12 battle.
Kansas ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 78.9 ppg, and they are 15th in shooting at 48.6%. Defensively they allow 68.8 ppg and rank 20th against the 3-pointer at 29.5%.
In the first meeting against Texas, Jamal Wilson led the way with 18 points and 11 rebounds but had a crucial missed free throw down the stretch. David McCormack had 16 points, while Christian Braun had 13.
Kansas got revenge against TCU earlier this week, and Agbaji led the way with 22 points as the Jayhawks topped 70 for the ninth time in their last ten games. On the season, he leads the team with 20.2 ppg and shoots 42.2% from 3-point range with 86 makes.
Braun averages 15.0 ppg while Wilson is at 10.6 to go with 7.1 rebounds per game. McCormack also averages 7.1 rpg and is just below the double-figures mark at 9.7 ppg. DaJuan Harris leads Kansas with 4.5 apg and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 37 percent from deep.
Betting Analysis
- Texas Longhorns +6.5 (-110)
- Kansas Jayhawks -6.5 (-110)
- Total Points 137.5. Over -110. under -110
Texas has covered in their last six road games against a team with a winning record, but they are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Kansas has struggled against good teams this season, going just 6-7 ATS at home against winning teams, and they also haven’t covered the number in the last three games. Look for this one to stay close throughout, with Kansas winning by less than two possessions.
Betting Pick: Texas +6.5 (-110)
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