The SEC opener for No. 7 Texas A&M (3-0) wasn’t expected to be a top-25 battle picked as the game of the week. But here we are in Week 4 as the Aggies face No. 16 Arkansas (3-0) as both teams attempt to keep pace with Alabama in the SEC West. Kickoff on CBS is set for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the game will be a neutral site contest at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Arkansas holds the all-time series lead 41-33-3, but Texas A&M has won the last nine meetings since joining the SEC. Last season the Aggies won 42-31, and the last time both teams were ranked, Texas A&M won 45-21 in 2016.
Stingy Defense Leads Aggies
The Aggies have won 11 in a row overall, dating back to the middle of last season. The defense has allowed only 17 points on the season, and they’ve also limited the first three opponents to 77 passing yards per game. The Aggies are 2-1 ATS as they failed to cover against Colorado in Week 2.
Quarterback Zach Calzada has completed 51 percent of his passes since taking over this season for Kellen Mond. He has four touchdowns and two interceptions in his first action since 2019, starting the last two games for the Aggies.
Isaiah Spiller is electric in the Aggies backfield. Last season he ran for 1,036 yards and nine touchdowns, and this season he’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Spiller has only scored one rushing touchdown in 2021, but he already has two games of at least 100 rushing yards.
Wideout Ainias Smith is closing in on 2,000 all-purpose yards for his career, and so far this season, he has 13 catches for 135 yards and two touchdowns. In last year’s win, he scored two touchdowns against the Razorbacks, one rushing and one receiving.
Arkansas Offense On Fire
Last season the Razorbacks ran for 222 yards against Texas A&M but going 3-for-12 on third down did them in. So far this season, they are running for 282 yards per game and racking up nearly 500 total yards per game. They are 3-0 ATS with wins of 25, 19, and 21, including the upset of No. 15 Texas in Week 2.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson is a dual-threat with 632 yards passing and 180 rushing this season. He ran for two touchdowns against Rice and has thrown for four touchdowns on the campaign. Jefferson got a little action for the Hogs in 2019 and 2020 but is now the full-time starter with Felepie Franks in the NFL.
Trelon Smith has rushed for 216 yards and three scores in three games while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Wide receiver Treylon Burks has become a big-play target averaging 15.8 yards per reception. He had a 91-yard score against Georgia Southern, and last season, he had seven touchdowns and a 16.1 yards per catch average.
The Arkansas defense will have to be ready to slow down the many Aggies weapons. Safety Jalen Catalon had 99 tackles last year as a freshman and already has 28 this season to go with two interceptions.
Betting Analysis
- Texas A&M -4.5 (-120) Moneyline -210
- Arkansas +4.5 (+100) Moneyline +175
- Total 47 points. Over -110. Under -110
Arkansas got off to a fast start against Texas and never looked back, which is what they will attempt to do against A&M. The Aggies defense is a different breed, though, and they have plenty of experience against quarterbacks like Jefferson. Penalties and turnovers will be key to this one, and the Aggies have more experience at key positions and on the sideline.
Betting Pick: Texas A&M -4.5 (-110)
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