The Rays scored twice in the eighth inning on Tuesday to win the series opener 3-1. On Wednesday, Tampa Bay will start LHP Ryan Yarbrough (7-4, 4.57) against Phillies RHP Zach Wheeler (10-8, 2.77). Tampa Bay is 3-0 against the Phillies this season and looking for the season sweep on Wednesday.
Rays Getting the Job Done
The win on Tuesday moved the Rays to 37-25 away from home. That contest was a rare under for the team, as the over is 71-51-4 in Tampa Bay’s games this season. The Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 and have only yielded three games in the standings to the Yankees during New York’s 11-game win streak. The Rays offense ranks second in MLB at 5.3 runs per game, and they are seventh in home runs at 1.34 per game.
Rookie Shortstop Wander Franco is batting over .307 in August with as many home runs (3) as he hit in June and July combined. Nelson Cruz, who was 3-for-4 with two RBI on Tuesday, is batting just .220 since joining at the trade deadline, but he does have seven homers in 25 games.
With Yarbrough on the mound, the Rays are 10-7 and the over is 12-5. Yarbrough is 4-1 on the road with an ERA nearly 1.5 runs better than it is at the Trop. However, in his last three starts, Yarbrough has allowed 11 earned runs in 17 innings and surrendered five home runs.
Last time out, Yarbourgh allowed five runs on nine hits over five innings, but the Rays beat Baltimore 10-6. He has given up two home runs and five earned runs in two straight starts but Tampa Bay won both games. He started against the Phillies in a 5-3 Rays win on May 29 allowing two runs on three hits over 4.1 innings while striking out eight.
Hoskins Returns to Boost Phillies
Philadelphia was in first place in the NL East briefly before a 3-7 stretch that coincided with a long Atlanta win streak. The Mets, Phillies, and Braves have played hot potato with the top of the division, and the second-place Phillies are now 4.5 games back. The Phillies are middle of the pack in just about every category in both hitting and pitching/defense.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins returned from a groin injury on Sunday after missing more than two weeks. He homered twice in his return to the lineup and leads the Phils with 26 on the season. Hoskins’ return balances out the lineup with lefties Bryce Harper, Odubel Herrera, and Didi Gregorious.
When Wheeler starts the Phillies are 14-11 and the under is 15-8. His last two starts have been among his worst of the season as he allowed six runs in 6.2 innings in a loss to Arizona on Thursday and four runs in six innings in a loss to the Reds on August 13. Wheeler has gone at least six innings in six straight starts and he has struck out at least five in nine straight starts.
Wheeler is 6-4 at home but has struggled in night games, posting a 4-6 record and an ERA 1.25 higher than in day games. He struck out 14 Rays over seven innings back on May 29 but allowed three runs as the Phillies lost 5-3
Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays +115 Moneyline. +1.5 run line (-170)
San Diego Padres -135 Moneyline. -1.5 run line (+150)
Total: 8.5 runs. Over +100. Under -120.
Wheeler is among the NL Cy Young favorites (+330) but he has fallen on rough times in his last few outings. The Rays are the type of team that can scratch across a run here and there to win a nail-biter against Wheeler. The real question is, can Yarbrough keep his team in the game and give the potent Rays bullpen a chance to slam the door.
FREE PICK: Over 8.5 runs (+100)
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