— Monday, March 07th Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns @ Georgia State Panthers
The top two seeds in the Sun Belt Conference have been eliminated, and the conference championship game features No. 3 Georgia State Panthers 17-10, 9-5) against No. 8 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (16-14, 8-9). One of those teams will pick up the conference’s automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament Monday night. Tip-off at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida, is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
These teams met twice this season, with Georgia State winning both games, by seven at home and by four on the road. Last year the Panthers won the only matchup by 11 points in the tournament semifinals. Georgia State has won eight of the last ten matchups and have covered in eight of the last nine.
This will be the fourth straight Sun Belt Conference championship game appearance for the Panthers, and they went to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and 2019, losing in the finals last year to Appalachian State. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t been in a tournament final since they beat Georgia State 82-81 in overtime in 2014 to go to the NCAA Tournament.
Panthers Defense Gets it Done
Georgia State is 11-12-1 ATS this season, and the under is 17-7 in their 24 games. They are 9-6 away from home, 3-1 in neutral site games. They upset No. 2 Appalachian State 71-66 on Sunday after beating No. 6 Arkansas State by three on Saturday.
The Panthers’ offense ranks 195th in the nation at 70.4 ppg, and they are 342nd in shooting percentage (40.1). The defense has been great all season, ranking 46th in the country at 64.6 ppg allowed and 80th in FG% defense (41.5).
Corey Allen leads the Panthers at 14.1 ppg, and he’s made a team-best 60 3-pointers on the season. Kane Williams (12.6) and Justin Roberts (11.3) are also averaging double figures on the season. Eljel Nsoseme leads the team with 9.6 rpg while also averaging 9.2 ppg.
Jalen Thomas had 16 points in the February win over the Ragin’ Cajuns, while Williams had 14. That duo also combined for 28 points in the January win over Louisiana. GSU allowed 12 3-pointers in the first matchup but held Louisiana to 5-of-21 from deep in the second meeting.
Louisiana Riding a Streak
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 13-14-1 ATS this season, and the under is 16-12 in their 28 games. They are 9-8 away from home overall and 3-0 in neutral site games. They beat No. 9 UT Arlington by three in the first round, knocked off No. 1 Texas State by seven in the quarterfinals, and beat No. 4 Troy by nine in the semifinals on Sunday.
In the tournament, Greg Williams Jr. has scored 12, 15, and 16 points. Jordan Brown had 31 points in the quarterfinals, while Jalen Dalcourt had 16 in the first-round win. Brown leads the team at 15.0 ppg and 8.6 rpg on the season, while Kobe Julien averages 12.7 ppg.
Louisiana was 12-of-22 from 3-point range in the first meeting with four makes from Kentrell Garnett, who finished with 17 points. Jordan Brown had 12 in the first game, but that duo combined for just eight points in the second contest. Greg Wiliams Jr. led the way in game two with 18 points off the bench.
Betting Analysis
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns +3 (-110). Money Line +130
- Georgia State Panthers -3 (-110). Money Line -150
- Total Points 132.5. Over -110. Under -110
Louisiana has won six of seven, but the one loss in that stretch was against Georgia State. The Panthers get it done on defense, and while they struggle to score, they have what it takes to keep the Ragin’ Cajuns’ top players in check. Look for the Panthers to cut down the nets and get into the NCAA Tournament.
Betting Pick: Georgia State -3 (-110)
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