— Sunday, January 30th San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
The San Francisco 49ers only got into the NFL playoffs by winning in overtime at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18, three Sundays ago. This Sunday, they return to Los Angeles to face their longtime rivals with a Super Bowl berth on the line. The kickoff at SoFi Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET, airing on FOX.
The 49ers swept the Rams this season with a 31-10 home win in November and a 27-24 overtime win on January 9. All-time, the 49ers lead the series 75-67-3, and they won the only previous playoff matchup 30-3 in the 1989 NFC Championship Game. The Rams are just 3-9 against San Francisco since returning to California, and they have lost six games in a row to the Niners.
Niners are Road Warriors
The 49ers are 11-8 ATS this season, and the under is 11-8 in their 19 games. They are 8-3 on the road and have covered in four of their last five road games, including winning three in a row outright.
In the first two playoff games, Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled with just 303 total yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. In the two games against the Rams this season, he was 38-for-51 for 498 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The run game has been strong for the Niners, with Elijah Mitchell tallying 149 yards in the playoffs and Deebo Samuel adding 111. They have each scored a touchdown, and San Francisco is averaging 4.1 yards per carry in the playoffs. Against the Rams this season, Mitchell ran 48 times for 176 yards while Samuel scored twice and added 81 yards on the ground.
Samuel is the top pass catcher in the playoffs with six receptions for 82 yards. Tight end George Kittle has five catches for 81 yards, while Brandon Aiyuk has five catches for 66 yards. Against the Rams this season, Samuel has nine catches for 192 yards with a touchdown while Aiyuk has nine for 133, Kittle has 10 for 60 and a touchdown, and JaJuan Jennings has two touchdown catches.
The defense has four interceptions against the Rams this season, two by Jimmie Ward in the first meeting. Emmanuel Moseley and Ambry Thomas had interceptions in the Week 18 comeback.
Stafford One Game Away
The Rams are 10-9 ATS this season, and the over is 10-8-1 in their 19 games. They are 6-3 at home and have covered in three of their last four home games.
Matt Stafford never had a career playoff win before this season, and now he has two in a row and a chance at a Super Bowl appearance in his home stadium. In the first two playoff wins, he has 568 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Against the 49ers this season, Stafford was 47-of-73 for 481 with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Cam Akers returned for the Week 18 game after an Achilles injury, and he has 103 yards in the postseason but also had two big fumbles last week in Tampa. Sony Michel has 62 rushing yards in the playoffs, and Stafford has a pair of QB sneak touchdowns. Michel ran for 63 yards against San Francisco this season on 25 carries, while Akers had five carries for three yards in Week 18.
After a monster regular season, Cooper Kupp has 14 catches for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs. Odell Beckham Jr. has ten catches for 123 yards and a touchdown, while tight end Tyler Higbee has seven catches for 97 yards. Kupp has 18 catches against San Francisco this season for 240 yards and a touchdown, while Higbee has 75 yards and three touchdowns.
Betting Analysis
- San Francisco 49ers +3.5 (-110). Money line +1555
- Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110) Money line -180
- Total Points 45.5 Over -110, Under -110
The 49ers have had the Rams number this season and under Kyle Shanahan. But it is tough to win three times against the same team in one season, twice on the road. As long as Stafford avoids the big mistake, look for the Rams to follow the Buccaneers’ lead and get a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Betting Pick: Rams -3.5 (-105)
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