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— Thursday, March 17th Creighton Bluejays @ San Diego State Aztecs
The Mountain West and Big East both have multiple teams in the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament, and the teams that lost in their conference tournament championship games go head to head in an 8-9 game. The No. 8 San Diego State (23-8) faces No. 9 Creighton (22-11), with the winner likely facing No. 1 Kansas in the next round. Tipoff is set for 7:27 p.m. ET Thursday at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, on TRUtv.
These teams have met three times since 2011, with SDSU winning two of those contests, but all three games were played in November. Creighton is 14-23 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Sweet Sixteen last year, and they are 10-12 in the first round. The Aztecs are 5-14 all-time in the tournament, 4-8 in the first round, and they lost to Syracuse in the opening round last year.
Aztecs Get Defensive
San Diego State is 17-14 ATS this season, and the under is 19-12 in their 31 games. They went 8-7 away from home with a 3-2 mark in neutral site games. In the non-conference, they lost to tournament teams USC and Michigan while beating St. Mary’s.
The Aztecs rank second in the nation allowing just 58.3 ppg, and they are fourth in the nation in holding teams to 37.9% shooting. The offense ranks 297th at 66.3 ppg, and they shoot 43.5% from the field. SDSU is the top 3-point shooting team in the MWC at 35.6%, ranking 71st in the nation.
Matt Bradley leads SDSU at 17 ppg and shoots 41.6% from the 3-point range. Nathan Mensah leads the team at 7.1 rpg, and Trey Pulliam leads with 3.4 apg. Pulliam is the Aztecs’ second-leading scorer at 8.5 ppg, while senior Adam Seiko is second to Bradley with 37 3-pointers made.
The Aztecs force more than 14 turnovers per game and will harass Creighton’s inexperienced guards all game. They have allowed less than 60 points in 20 of 31 games, including the MWC title game, which they lost to Boise State 53-52.
Shorthanded Bluejays Playing Hard
Creighton is 19-14 ATS, and the under is 21-11-1 in their 33 games. They are 11-7 away from home and went 8-3 in non-conference play. Creighton is 3-3 since freshman Ryan Nembhard broke his wrist on February 23, and they fell to Villanova 54-48 in the Big East title game.
Creighton’s 3-point shooting has been bad this season, ranking 310th in the nation at 31%. Overall they score 69.0 ppg and shoot 45.1% from the field. They rank 316th at 30.8% shooting and are 220th overall offensively at 69.5 ppg. The Jays rank 106th defensively at 66.7 ppg allowed, and they rank 30th, allowing just 40% shooting.
Nembhard averaged 11.3 ppg and 4.4 apg while starting 27 games and averaging 34.8 minutes per game, the most by a Big East freshman in a decade. With their point guard out, the Jays have gone inside more, where they shoot 54% as a team. But they are also averaging a turnover in 20% of their possessions the last six games, and that could be an issue against an athletic Aztecs team.
Defensively, center Ryan Kalkbrenner averages 2.7 blocks per game, and the Jays are ninth in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot 43% on 2-pointers. Creighton led the Big East at 26.2 defensive rebounds per game, with Ryan Hawkins grabbing 7.8 rpg and scoring nearly 14 ppg.
Betting Analysis
San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110). Money Line -135
Creighton Bluejays +2.5 (-110) Money Line +115
Total Points: 120 Over -110 Under -110
Creighton has held opponents under 60 ppg in the last ten contests, while the Aztecs have limited teams to 54.9 in their last 10. San Diego State has a clear advantage on the perimeter with Nembhard out, but the Bluejays will control the paint and likely the glass. This should be a very low-scoring game with a slow tempo, and if it comes down to free throws, Creighton has a slight edge at 73% to SDSU’s 69%.
Betting Pick: Under 120 (-110)
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