Media by Associated Press – New York Mets’ Tomas Nido reacts after hitting a flyout to end a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Saturday, July 23, 2022, in New York. The Padres won 2-1. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
With losses in the first two games of the series, the New York Mets (58-37) are in danger of falling out of first place in the NL East for the first time since April 11. With the offense in a slump, the Mets host the San Diego Padres (54-42) with just a half-game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Sunday’s series finale at Citi Field is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Mets will start RHP Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.27) on Sunday against Padres All-Star RHP Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42). Sunday’s game is the last of the season between these teams, and the Padres lead the series 4-1. Last year the Mets went 4-3 overall and 2-1 at home.
Padres Pitching Dominates
The Padres slumped into the All-Star break with a 4-6 record and 41 runs allowed in those setbacks. They’ve come out of the break allowing just two total runs to beat the Mets 4-1 and 2-1. They are 29-21 on the road this season, 32-29 against RHP, and 14-9 against the NL East.
Manny Machado had the big hit on Saturday with a two-run homer in the sixth inning. San Diego had just four hits in the win as Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer, and Luke Voit added singles. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell have combined for 14 strikeouts, and one run allowed over 12 innings in the series.
The Padres didn’t trail on Friday either as they beat Max Scherzer. Eric Hosmer homered off Scherzer while Trent Grisham went deep later in the game. Voit had two hits, and Hosmer added a double in the win.
Musgrove is 3-2 in his last five decisions with a 3.13 ERA. He took a no-decision at Colorado in his last start before the break, allowing five runs on nine hits over five innings. He hasn’t faced the Mets this season and lost two of them twice in 2021.
In his career, Musgrove has given up home runs to J.D. Davis, Eduardo Escobar and Francisco Lindor. Davis is 2-for-2, while Lindor is 5-for-14 with two homers. Pete Alonso is 2-for-6, and Jeff McNeil is 1-for-5.
Mets Offense Still on Break
The Mets won four of five into the All-Star break but have scored just ten runs total in their last five games. They haven’t been swept in a series of more than two games, and this is just the second time all season they have lost three games in a row. They are 28-17 at home this season, 38-22 against RHP, and 13-12 against the NL West.
The Mets trailed 4-0 before scoring in the seventh inning on Friday as Luis Guillorme doubled home McNeil. In Saturday’s loss, they didn’t score until the bottom of the ninth when Davis drove in Alonso. Alonso was 3-for-4 in the game with a double, while Davis was 2-for-4.
The Mets have ten hits in the series, eight singles, and two doubles. They haven’t led in the series, and the pitchers have allowed three home runs. The offense has struck out 19 times in the two games while drawing just four walks.
Carrasco beat the Cubs on July 14 in his last start as he allowed five hits over six shutout innings. Carrasco is 2-0 in his last three starts, with three runs allowed over 17 ⅓ innings. On the season, he has allowed 11 home runs while striking out 100 batters in 99 innings.
Carrasco beat the Padres on June 6 with ten strikeouts over seven innings as he allowed two runs on five hits. Profar is 5-for-8 in his career against Carrasco with a home run, while Nomar Mazara is 4-for-10.
Hosmer has the most at-bats against Carrasco from their AL days. The first baseman is 8-for-34 (.235).
Betting Analysis
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105) Moneyline -105
- New York Mets +1.5 (-195) Moneyline -115
- Total Runs 8.5 Over -105. Under -115
Neither team has been hitting well out of the break, with nearly all the Padres runs coming on homers and the Mets scoring once late in both games.
Both starting pitchers have also thrown well this season and have had success against the opposing lineups. Combined, that signals that Sunday’s game will be low scoring to finish the series.
Betting Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Keep up with your latest MLB news coverage and betting pick previews at NJ Sportsbook.