>The Kansas City Chiefs have a forecast 77% chance to win against The Pittsburgh Steelers with a spread of -9.0/9.0 and an over/under of 49.5. The Kansas City Chiefs are 1 – 0 against The Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2021-22 Season.
— Sunday, January 16th Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
The final AFC game of Wild Card weekend is David v. Goliath as the 12-5 Kansas Chiefs host the 9-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs haven’t lost a playoff game to an AFC team in three years while the Steelers snuck into the playoffs at the last minute. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, airing on NBC.
These teams met Christmas weekend in Kansas City, and the Chiefs won 36-10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. They have met twice in the playoffs, with the Steelers winning in Arrowhead in January 2017 and the Chiefs winning at home in January 1994. That Steelers win on January 15, 2017, was their last playoff win as they have three straight losses in January while also missing the playoffs twice in that span.
Big Ben’s Last Hurrah
The Steelers are 8-9 ATS this season, and the under was 11-6 in their 17 games. They went 3-5 on the road, with their only win in the last five games coming in overtime in Week 18 at Baltimore.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing (93.1 ypg), 15th in passing (222.2), and 21st in scoring (20.2 ppg). The defense ranks ninth against the pass (215.1), but they are dead last against the run (146.1) and 30th in scoring (23.4).
Ben Roethlisberger is expected to retire after the season, and the future Hall of Famer gets one more shot at the playoffs. He’s 13-9 in the playoffs with a 5-3 record on the road. Big Ben threw for 3,740 yards this season with 22 touchdowns and ten interceptions.
Rookie Najee Harris has 1,200 rushing yards on the season with seven touchdowns. He also has 74 catches for 487 yards and another three touchdowns. Harris ran for 93 yards at Kansas City in Week 16 and added 17 receiving yards.
The Steelers are expected to get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from IR on Sunday to join Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool at the wide receiver position. Johnson has 108 catches for 1,161 yards on the season, while Claypool has 59 for 860. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns.
T.J. Watt tied the NFL single-season sack record last week as he finished with 23.5. However, he was ineffective against Kansas City in December with no pressure on Patrick Mahomes and just one total tackle. The Steelers’ defense must be better than they were a month ago when they gave up 381 total yards and 36 points.
Mahomes Time to Shine
Kansas City went 8-9 ATS this season, and the over was 10-7 in their 17 games. They are 7-2 at Arrowhead this season and have won their last four playoff games at home by an average of 10.0 ppg.
The Chiefs offense ranks fourth in scoring (28.2 ppg), fourth in passing (281.8 ypg), and third in total yards. The defense ranks eighth in scoring defense (21.4), but they are 27th against the pass (251.4) and 21st against the run (117.6).
Mahomes threw for 4,839 yards this season with 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He threw for 258 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers in December while being sacked twice. He has at least two passing touchdowns in five straight games and has just one interception in that span.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out on Sunday, leaving the run game to Darrel Williams, Derrick Gore, and Jerick McKinnon. Williams leads the team with 558 yards on the season but is questionable with a toe injury. Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing in Week 18 with 54 yards while Gore had 30.
Tyreek Hill missed most of the Week 18 game with a heel injury, but the superstar speedster is expected to play Sunday. Hill has 111 catches for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns on the season, while tight end Travis Kelce has 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. Byron Pringle gashed the Steelers in December with six catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns, while Mecole Hardman also found the end zone.
Betting Analysis
- Pittsburgh Steelers +11.5 (-110). Money line +475
- Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-115). Money line -700
- Total Points: 46. Over -105. Under -115
It is easy to see that the Steelers are in way over their head in this game and don’t really belong in the playoffs. The Chiefs let the No. 1 seed slip through their fingers with a Week 17 loss, but now their focus is all on a third-straight Super Bowl trip. Look for a repeat of the week 16 game with the Chiefs offense dominating this game from the start.
Betting Pick: Chiefs -11.5 (-105)
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