— Sunday, January 16th Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin the defense of their Super Bowl championship on Sunday when they host the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card round. The Eagles (9-8) started the season 3-6 before turning things around, while the Bucs (13-4) controlled the NFC South all season. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, airing on FOX.
These teams met in October as Tampa Bay went to Philadelphia and won 28-22 in a game they led by 21 with 18 minutes to play. The Eagles beat Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII, but that was against the Patriots. The Bucs and Eagles haven’t met in the playoffs since January 2003, and they are 2-2 head-to-head in their playoff history.
Hurts Leads Eagles on Ground
The Eagles are 8-8-1 ATS, and the over is 10-7 in their 17 games this season. They went 6-3 on the road in the regular season but did not defeat a single playoff team.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks first in the NFL in rushing (159.7 ypg), 25th in passing (200.2), and 12th in scoring (26.1 ppg). The defense ranks ninth against the run (107.9), 11th against the pass (220.9), and 18th in scoring (22.6).
Jalen Hurts led all NFL quarterbacks in rushing this season with 139 carries for 784 yards and ten touchdowns. Passing wise he completed 61 percent for 3,144 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season. In the Week 6 loss, he threw for 115 yards and ran for 44 with three total touchdowns and one interception.
After missing the last two games, running back Miles Sanders is expected to play Sunday. He has 754 yards in 12 games but didn’t score in the regular season. Sanders ran nine times for 56 against Tampa Bay in October.
First-rounder Devonta Smith broke the Eagles rookie receiving record last week when he went over 900 yards on the season. He finished the season with 64 catches and five touchdowns, while tight end Dallas Goedert had 56 catches and four touchdowns.
Bucs Ready for Brady Time
Tampa Bay went 9-8 ATS, and the over went 9-8 in their 17 games. They are 7-1 at Raymond James this season, with the only loss coming against the Saints in Week 15.
The Bucs offense, led by Tom Brady, leads the NFL in passing (307.6 ypg), ranks second in total yards (405.9), and second in scoring (30.1). The defense ranks third in the NFL against the run (92.5 ypg), fifth in scoring defense (20.4), and 13th in total defense (331.5).
Brady is Mr. Playoffs with a 34-11 record, but he’s surprisingly 2-3 ATS in the Wild Card round and 2-3 straight-up against NFC East opponents. On the season, he led the NFL with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns while also tossing 12 interceptions. Against Philadelphia, in Week 6, he threw for 297 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
Running back Leonard Fournette, who hasn’t played since December 19, will be a game-time decision on Sunday. He ran for 81 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles in October and dominated the playoffs last year. Ronald Jones is also hobbled with an ankle injury, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Le’Veon Bell doing most of the running in Week 18.
With top wideout Chris Godwin done for the year with an ACL injury, the pressure falls on Mike Evans and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Evans had 74 catches for 1,035 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season, while Gronk caught 55 balls in 12 games for 802 yards and six scores. The Bucs leading receiver against Philly in Week 6 was Antonio Brown, who is no longer on the roster.
Betting Analysis
- Philadelphia Eagles +8.5 (-115). Money line +310
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 (-105). Money line -400
- Total Points: 45.5. Over -115. Under -105
The Bucs are hurting on both sides of the ball, but their strengths line up well against the Eagles. Hurts likely won’t be able to pick on Tampa’s secondary while Evans and Gronk can get open when they want to against the Philly defense. Keep an eye on the weather as wind and rain could impact this contest and give the under a strong boost.
Betting Pick: Bucs -8.5 (-105)
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