Two top-five teams go head-to-head this weekend in the Big Ten as No. 3 Iowa 54-0, 2-0) hosts No. 4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0). While the teams are in opposite divisions in the conference, the winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Kickoff at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City is set for 4:00 p.m., and the game will air on FOX.
Penn State leads the all-time series 17-13, but Iowa won on the road last season 41-21. Penn State has won three in a row at Kinnick Stadium, dating back to a loss in 2010. Iowa won eight of nine from 2000-10, but PSU has won six of the last seven.
Clifford Playing with Confidence
PSU is 4-0 ATS this season when facing FBS teams. The Penn State defense allows 12 points per game and are coming off a shutout of Indiana last Saturday. They have nine takeaways on the season and rank third in the nation in scoring defense.
Quarterback Sean Clifford has completed 67 percent of his passes on the season for 1,336 yards. He has 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions and has also rushed for 137 yards and a score. Clifford has utilized 13 different receivers this season, with five finding the end zone.
Last week against Indiana may have been the breakthrough the run game needed. The Nittany Lions ran the ball 42 times for 209 yards, with Keyvone Lee leading the way at 74 yards on eight carries. Noah Cain leads the season stats with 187 yards and three touchdowns, while Lee has 174 yards and a 6.2 average.
Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington, and Keandre Lambert-Smith are the playmakers at wide receiver. Dotson has 35 catches for 446 yards and six touchdowns, while Washington has 25 catches for 331 yards and two scores. Lambert-Smith averages 17.2 yards per touch and has an 83-yard touchdown on the season.
Penn State’s defense has been smothering all season though they have just eight sacks. The secondary has seven interceptions, and they buckle down in the red zone allowing just one touchdown in their two Big Ten games.
Iowa Defense Will Take It Away
Iowa is 4-1 ATS this season, 2-0 as single-digit favorites. Iowa has played top 10 teams 15 times at home under coach Kirk Ferentz, going 7-8 straight up. Iowa has generated 16 turnovers in the five games this season with 12 interceptions, six coming last week at Maryland.
Quarterback Spencer Petras does just enough to get the job done with 943 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. He has completed 62 percent of his passes with just one interception. He threw for a season-high 259 yards last week at Maryland but has been held under 200 yards twice this season.
The run game is where it’s at for the Hawkeyes with a massive offensive line and multiple talented rushers. Tyler Goodson leads the way with 430 yards and five touchdowns on a 4.3 yard per carry average. Senior Ivory Kelly-Martin averages 4.9 yards per carry and has 153 yards on the season, while Petras has three rushing touchdowns.
Tight end Sam LaPorta and Goodson are the top receivers on the team. LaPorta has 22 catches for 263 yards and two scores, while Goodson has 12 catches for 146 yards. Nico Ragani is the only wide receiver over 100 yards on the entire season with 132 and one touchdown.
The red zone has given Iowa trouble this season as they have ten touchdowns and six field goals on 19 trips inside the 20. The good news is they don’t turn the ball over with just one interception and three lost fumbles in five games.
Betting Analysis
- Penn State +1.5 (-105). Moneyline +105
- Iowa -1.5 (-115). Moneyline -130
- Total Points: 41.5. Over (-115). Under (-105)
It is really hard to imagine either of these teams putting up a lot of points. It feels like a traditional slog-it-out Big Ten game where the first and only team to get to 20 wins. Both teams take care of the ball, and whichever is more disciplined and avoids penalties likely wins this game.
Betting Pick: Under 41.5 (-105)
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