>The Michigan Wolverines have a forecast 68% chance to win against The Ohio State Buckeyes with a spread of -3.5/3.5 and an over/under of 63.5. The Michigan Wolverines are 0 – 0 against The Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2021-22 Season.
— Saturday, November 27th Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan Wolverines
The Big Ten East comes down to the biggest game of the year for No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Michigan. Both teams are 10-1 overall and have playoff hopes, but only the winner will stay in the hunt. Kickoff from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor is set for Noon ET on Saturday, and the game will be televised by FOX.
This rivalry has belonged to the Buckeyes in recent years with eight straight wins and a 15-1 mark since 2003. The last two Michigan wins (2011, 2003) have come in Ann Arbor, and they lead the all-time series 58-51-6. The last time they played with so much on the line was in 2006 when No. 1 Ohio State beat No. 2 Michigan 42-39 and eventually played in the National Championship Game.
Stroud Finds His Stride
Ohio State has dominated the last two opponents with 56 and 59 points, including a 49-point rout of then No. 7 Michigan State. In those two games quarterback C.J. Stroud is 63-for-73 for 793 yards and 11 touchdowns. He hasn’t turned the ball over in either game and is now the Heisman favorite heading into the Michigan game.
Three wide receivers have been huge for Stroud’s production. Jaxon Smith-Nigba has 69 catches for 1,137 yards and six touchdowns, while Garrett Wilson has 60 catches for 939 yards and 11 scores. Chris Olave leads the team with 13 touchdown catches, and he has 58 catches for 846 yards.
The run game has been productive all season, though less so the final two weeks with all the passing yards. Freshman Treveyon Henderson has 1,098 yards on the season for an average of 7.3 ypc, and he’s scored 14 touchdowns. Master Teague missed the Purdue game but returned to lead the team with 95 yards against Michigan State.
The Buckeyes defense ranks 11th in the nation against the run and 16th in scoring. They have 11 interceptions and 11 fumbles forced with 35 sacks.
Time for Michigan to Take Next Step
Michigan has yet to beat Ohio State in the Jim Harbaugh era, and they warmed up with a 59-18 win at Maryland last week. On the season, they are 9-2 ATS, but one of those losses was also a straight-up home loss to Michigan State in October.
Quarterback Cade McNamara has completed 64 percent of his passes on the season for 2,142 yards. He has 14 touchdowns and two interceptions, while the line has kept him protected with only six sacks on the season. He threw for 383 yards in the Michigan State loss and had 250 yards last week at Maryland for his fourth straight game with at least two touchdown passes.
The Michigan run game ranks 15th in the nation at 218 yards per game. Hassan Haskins leads the way with 1,063 yards and 13 touchdowns, but the Spartans held him to 59 yards on 14 carries. Blake Corum has 778 yards and ten scores on the season, but he missed last week’s game at Maryland with a foot injury and is questionable for Saturday.
Wideout Cornelius Johnson is the top target for McNamara with 34 catches on the season. He has 539 yards and three touchdowns, while four other players have two touchdown catches.
The Michigan defense has 28 sacks on the season, led by David Ojabo with 10. They have forced ten fumbles and have seven interceptions. The Wolverines defense ranks eighth in the country against the pass, seventh in scoring, and ninth in total yards allowed.
Betting Analysis
- Ohio State -7.5 (-110). Money Line -300
- Michigan +7.5 (-110). Money Line +235
- Total Points 64.5 (Over -110. Under -110)
This game will go one of two ways, a close game down to the last possession or a typical Ohio State blowout. Ohio State needs to control the run on defense, and for Michigan, it will come down to slowing down Stroud and getting a turnover. Either way, the points should be plentiful in Ann Arbor as both offenses have the ability to find the end zone repeatedly.
Betting Pick: Over 64.5 (-110)
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