— Monday, April 04th North Carolina Tar Heels @ Kansas Jayhawks
The NCAA men’s college basketball championship game is set, and it features two blue bloods as the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-6) face the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (29-9). Kansas is looking for their first title in 14 years, while UNC can join the 1985 Villanova Wildcats as the only No. 8 seeds to ever cut down the nets. Tipoff on Saturday is set for 9:20 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, airing on TBS.
These teams have met 11 times in history, with UNC leading the series 6-5. However, Kansas leads 4-2 in NCAA Tournament games, including a win in the 2008 Final Four and 2003 Elite Eight. The only time they have played for a National Championship was in 1957 when UNC beat Wilt Chamberlain and Kansas in triple overtime.
Kansas has been to 17 Final Four’s and won three titles in their history, the last coming in 2008 under Bill Self. They lost the title game in 2012, also in New Orleans. UNC has been to a record 21 Final Four’s and won six titles, the most recent in 2017.
Tar Heels Feeling the Love
UNC is 21-16-1 ATS this season, and the over is 22-15-1 in their 38 games. They are 6-4 in neutral site games, winning six of the last seven in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments.
The Tar Heels rank 28th in the nation in scoring at 78.1 ppg, and they scored 81 against Duke on Saturday. They shoot 45.2% from the field and 37.5% from the 3-point range. The defense allows 72.8 ppg overall, but they have held three of their five opponents in the tournament to 66 points or less.
UNC has been using their “Iron Five” rotation with very limited substitutions. They had a combined 13 minutes off the bench against Duke, largely due to Armando Bacot being briefly injured and then fouling out. Bacot, Brady Manek, RJ Davis, Caleb Love, and Leaky Black all play more than 30 minutes per game.
Love had another monster game on Saturday with 28 points against Duke. In the five tournament games, UNC has had four different leading scorers, and they’ve had four players score at least 20 points in a game during the run to the title game. Manek has 100 points in the tournament while Love has 95, Bacot has 77, and Davis has 73.
Bacot has back-to-back games with at least 21 rebounds and is a big reason why UNC outrebounded Duke by nine. The junior has 84 rebounds in the tournament and a double-double in seven straight games.
Kansas Getting It Done in Clutch
Kansas is 20-18-1 ATS this season, and the over is 21-18 in their 39 games. They are 3-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, with covers in each of the last two games. The Jayhawks are 11-1 in neutral site games this season with regular-season wins over Michigan State, Iona, and North Texas, plus a loss to Dayton.
Kansas ranks 29th in the nation at 78.3 ppg on offense, and they shoot 47.8%, ranked 23rd in the nation. The Jayhawks have scored at least 76 points in all but one of their NCAA Tournament wins, and they’ve scored 80 or more twice.
Sixth-man Remy Martin is healthy after missing most of February, and the senior has led Kansas in scoring in three of the five tournament games. He scored 23 against Providence and 20 against Creighton but just three against Villanova in the Final Four win.
David McCormack led the way against Nova with 25 points and nine rebounds, while All-American Ochai Agbaji had 21 points. After making just 4-of-14 from 3-point range in the first four games, the Big 12 Player of the Year was 6-of-7 from deep against Villanova. Agbaji’s hot shooting helped Kansas to 13-of-24 (54.2%) from deep in the Final Four win.
Kansas held Villanova to 38.6% shooting from the field, the fifth straight opponent they’ve held under 40% in the tournament. They did allow 13 3-pointers and will have to lock down the perimeter against the Tar Heels.
Betting Analysis
- North Carolina Tar Heels +4 (-110). Money Line +155
- Kansas Jayhawks -4 (-110). Money Line -180
- Total Points 153 Over -110. under -110
The glass will be key to this game as UNC is +58 in rebounding during the tournament while Kansas is +52. Neither team turns the ball over much, and both teams have shot the ball well from deep in the last month.
It is likely to take 80 points to win this game, and we could be in for an instant classic the way both teams have played in the clutch and down the stretch in March.
Betting Pick: Over 153 (-110)
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