Media by Associated Press – Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) warms up near the sideline during an NFL wild-card football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Chargers 31-30. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
Looking at NFL MVP odds before the 2023 season starts focuses on which quarterback is best positioned for success. A non-quarterback hasn’t won the MVP since Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson piled up over 2,000 rushing yards. But with how the NFL has tilted to become an offensive-heavy league, it seems unlikely a non-quarterback would win anytime soon.
Here’s a look at the four early favorites to win the award.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers, +1100
Herbert will need to show a few things to bring home his first MVP. First, Hebert needs to make Los Angeles look like a bona fide Super Bowl contender from when the season starts. He will also need to show some progress.
While Hebert did help the Chargers make the playoffs last season, his touchdown passes fell from 38 to 25 last season. When it comes to passing yards, Hebert’s total also fellow 5,000 yards last season as he finished with 4,739. Los Angeles will still be in a tough division, and Herbert will need to win big and put up solid numbers to take the crown.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills, +800
Allen has the challenge of trying to keep up with all of his young contemporaries in the AFC. Number-wise, Allen should be able to stand out for what should be an excellent Buffalo team next season. However, Allen, who passed for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns, made crucial mistakes at big times last season.
Several of those turnovers ended up costing Buffalo games. Allen threw 14 interceptions and lost a fumble. Some of those turnovers contributed to the Bills falling to the second seed in the AFC. If Allen can put up strong numbers and Buffalo gets the top seed, Allen could win.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs, +700
Mahomes was a unanimous MVP last season, one in which he led Kansas City to its second Super Bowl title in the past five years. What makes Mahomes, a two-time award winner, a threat to win the MVP every season is his play-making ability. Mahomes led the league in both passing yards (5,250) and touchdown passes (41) last season.
In addition, Mahomes completed a career-high 67.1 percent of his passes while starting all 17 games for the Chiefs. Mahomes’ magic in the playoffs came despite having a beat-up ankle. Mahomes is clearly a tremendous talent.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals, +700
Burrow’s arrival in Cincinnati has tilted the balance of power in the AFC North on its head. The long-time division bullies, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, haven’t kept up with the upstart Bengals. A large part of that is Burrow’s play.
Burrow passed for a career-high 35 touchdown passes last season. He also didn’t have a shortage of opportunities to make plays, throwing a career-high 606 pass attempts. Burrow finished the year with 4,475 passing yards.
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