Media by Associated Press – Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes against the Tennessee Titans during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
With the NFL season past the midway point, we’ve seen some changes in the betting markets for team and player futures. The MVP betting market can be volatile this time of year as contenders separate themselves from contenders.
Last week alone, Patrick Mahomes took over the top slot after rallying the Chiefs past the Titans on national TV, while Jalen Hurts fell back to the pack even though Philadelphia won.
The MVP favorites are all quarterbacks, and the team that ends with the best record could determine the MVP. Let’s take a look at the top three contenders as the NFL season rolls toward Thanksgiving.
Patrick Mahomes
After Sunday night’s comeback against the Tennessee Titans, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +200. He threw for 446 yards on Sunday, with another 63 yards on the ground and two total touchdowns. Mahomes also turned in some dazzling plays as the Chiefs won 20-17 in overtime.
Mahomes leads the league in passing with 2,605 yards and in passing touchdowns with 21. He has six interceptions and 176 rushing yards with one TD on the ground.
Mahomes is getting going with his new offensive weapons. He has back-to-back games with at least 420 passing yards and three straight with 330 or more. He has also accounted for at least two total touchdowns in five straight games.
Yes, the Chiefs lost to Buffalo, but they are still tied for the best record in the AFC at 6-2. With his pedigree as a former MVP, Mahomes will stay in the race as long as he is healthy this year and the Chiefs are atop the AFC West, which they lead by one game.
Jalen Hurts
The Philadelphia Eagles are the surprise team in the NFC this season and are still the only unbeaten team in the NFL. They did struggle on Thursday night in Houston, but most teams look different in Thursday night games. Even in the closer-than-expected win, Hurts still completed 21-of-27 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 23 yards.
Huts rank second in MVP odds at +250 after being the favorite in October. He ranks 10th in the NFL in passing yards with 2,042 and sixth in completion percentage at 68.2. Hurts has 12 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions, and he has rushed for 326 yards and six touchdowns.
Hurts finally has some weapons with A.J Brown in the fold and Devonta Smith in his second year, adding to tight end Dallas Goedert. Hurts has thrown for more than 300 yards twice this season and has accounted for at least two total touchdowns in six of the eight games.
The Eagles lead the NFC East by two games, and the schedule is very manageable through November, with games against Washington, Indianapolis, and Green Bay up next. If Hurts keeps the Eagles unbeaten and headed toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC, he is a very strong bet for MVP.
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had a tremendous season until Sunday. He ranks third in MVP odds at +350 but took a hit with the Bills losing 20-17 to the Jets. Allen was also injured in the game, and with his elbow, under 100%, he may miss the next game against Minnesota.
Obviously, missing time will have a severe impact on Allen’s chances to keep pace with Mahomes and Hurts, and he could get passed in odds by Lamar Jackson or Tua Tagovailoa if he misses multiple weeks.
Allen ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards with 2,403 and in touchdowns with 19. He didn’t have a touchdown pass on Sunday but ran for two scores and 86 yards on the ground. One problem for Allen is that he has eight interceptions, two against the Jets, and has as many picks as Mahomes and Hurts combined.
Allen has more rushing yards than either Mahomes or Hurts on the season with 392, and he has four touchdowns on the ground. The Bills are 6-2 with a one-game lead in the AFC East. After the Vikings game, Buffalo and Allen can feast on Cleveland and Detroit before getting back into division play in December.
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