New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) in action during the second half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass) – Media by Associated Press
With just three weeks left in the NFL regular season, there are still plenty of playoff spots up for grabs, and nearly every division title is on the line. This week’s games are spread out from Thursday to Monday, with most of the action coming on Saturday, Christmas Eve.
Let’s take a look at building a three-team parlay over the holiday weekend for NFL Week 16 action.
Under 36.5 points Ravens/Falcons
The offenses in this game are atrocious, and the defenses are pretty good. With Lamar Jackson out and his backup, Tyler Huntley, hurting, the Ravens are a mess. Tight end Mark Andrews is their only dependable pass catcher, and running back J.K. Dobbins has emerged as a weapon with 225 yards since returning from injury two weeks ago.
Desmond Ridder took over for Marcus Mariota as the Falcons’ quarterback, and his first start was rather uninspiring. He completed 50% of his passes and was held under 100 yards in a loss to the Saints. He will face a better defense this week, and the Falcons’ O-line is banged up against a team that has 42 sacks on the season.
Baltimore ranks eighth defensively, and they have allowed 12 ppg in the last three weeks. They have stumbled out of the AFC North lead because of their offense and injuries. They have scored less than ten ppg in those three games and now face a Falcons team that is stingy on defense.
With injuries, quarterback issues, and a lack of wide receiver talent in this game, the defenses should feast. Look for the under to hit, as this one stays under 36 points.
New York Giants +4.5
The Minnesota Vikings have been flirting with disaster for weeks, and it will finally bite them on Christmas Eve. They clinched the NFC North last week with a miracle against a bad Colts team, and now they face a Giants team battling for a playoff spot. The Giants are +4.5 as they head into Minnesota off their own thrilling win Sunday night in Washington, D.C.
Minnesota’s defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per game (413.8). They are bad against the run, allowing 120.4 ypg, and the Giants should be able to control the clock with Saquon Barkley and the run game. The Giants average 146.2 ypg on the ground, and Barkley put up 87 yards with a touchdown in Week 15.
Daniel Jones hasn’t turned the ball over in four straight games through the air while completing at least 60% of his passes in those games. The Giants are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, with the only non-cover coming in Seattle on November 13.
The Vikings have allowed 70 points in the last two weeks to Detroit and Indianapolis. They have multiple weapons on offense in Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson. But Kirk Cousins still turns it over way too much, with 11 interceptions on the season, and the defense can’t get off the field.
The Giants can cover this spread by keeping Minnesota’s explosive offense on the sidelines. Look for Jones and Barkley to control the clock, and the game with long, clock-consuming drives as the Giants stay close and cover the +4.5
LA Chargers -4.5
Monday night games can be hit or miss at the end of the NFL week. This one should be rather interesting, as the Indianapolis Colts have had a long week to think about their disastrous 33-point blown lead in Minnesota last Saturday.
With two extra days off, new coach Jeff Saturday also decided to change quarterbacks from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles. The superstar running back Jonathan Taylor is out for the rest of the year. Simply put, the Colts are an utter mess at 4-9-1, and even at home, it is hard to trust them to play a full 60 minutes.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are in the playoffs as of today, but they need to pick up a couple more wins to feel comfortable. They have won three of four, with the defense allowing 20 points or less in the last three games and the offense scoring at least 23 in four of the last five. Justin Herbert has topped 300 yards in three straight games, and Keenan Allen is finally back as a top target.
The Chargers shouldn’t have any trouble on either side of the ball against the Colts on Monday night. Herbert and company can expose the defense as the Vikings did, and without Ryan and Taylor, the offense is in flux as well. Look for the Chargers to win by a touchdown on the road and cover this spread.
Parlay Picks
Ravens/Falcons Under 36.5 (-11)
NY Giants +4.5 (-110)
LA Chargers -4.5 (-110)
Parlay: +595
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