Buffalo Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa (57) celebrates after a defensive stop against the New York Jets during the second half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus) – Media by Associated Press
With the playoff races tightening in both the AFC and NFC, we head into Week 15 of the NFL season, the final weekend of games before Christmas. With the college regular season over, there is also a trio of Saturday games this week, giving us NFL action on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday for Week 15.
Let’s build a three-team parlay for the weekend.
Tennessee Titans +3
The Tennessee Titans have lost three games in a row but this is a great matchup for them against the Los Angeles Chargers. Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but their lead over Jacksonville has dwindled to two games, and they need to get a win to stop their slide. The Chargers are tied for the last playoff spot in the AFC at 7-6, but this matchup is a rough one for them.
Derrick Henry ran for 121 yards last week against the Jaguars, but the Titans had to go away from the run late as they tried, unsuccessfully, to rally. Now they face a team that ranks 29th in yards allowed per carry and 25th in overall run defense. The Chargers have also allowed the most runs of more than 20 yards on the season.
Los Angeles will attempt to speed up the game with quick possessions through quarterback Justin Herbert. They will need their defense to help out as the Titans run clock with long drives, running the fewest plays per game in the NFL. Herbert was great last week against the Dolphins, but Miami still held the Chargers to 23 points.
The Chargers have virtually no home-field advantage, evidenced in their 13-22-1 ATS mark as home favorites in L.A. Tennessee is 4-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Look for them to run all over the Chargers to another cover.
Buffalo Bills -7
Snow may wreak havoc on this game in Buffalo this weekend, and that’s not good news for the Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen got some experience in the bad weather last week, throwing for 147 yards in the freezing rain against the Jets. Allen used his legs to run for 47 yards, and a touchdown as Buffalo’s defense held the Jets to 12 points.
Miami went cross country last week and lost in Los Angeles Sunday night. The offense was horrible for most of the night, with the first touchdown coming on a fluke fumble return. Now they head to Buffalo for a bad-weather game, and Tua Tagovailoa has a 61.4 passer rating in his four career cold-weather games.
Neither team is great at running the ball, but the Bills have the better defense, ranking third against the run. When these teams met in Miami back in September, the Dolphins won 21-19 with a fourth-quarter touchdown. Allen threw for 400 yards, while Buffalo held Miami to 41 yards rushing.
The spread is high, but Miami has scored 17 points in two straight weeks, and their offense won’t be able to keep up in the bad weather of Buffalo.
Baltimore Ravens +3
Another Saturday game as the Baltimore Ravens looks to overcome injuries and keep pace with the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Both teams are 9-4 at the top of the division, but the Ravens will have to take on rival Cleveland without Lamar Jackson.
The good news is they got JK Dobbins back last week, and he ran for 120 yards against the Steelers while scoring a touchdown. If he can keep performing at that level, it offsets the loss of Jackson’s rushing prowess, and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley can run the ball as well.
Cleveland has allowed 128 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per rush, while Baltimore ranks third in the league at 162.2 rush yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. They will run the ball and then run it some more against Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson is making his Cleveland debut after two straight road games. In those two games, he has completed 50.4% of his passes for just 307 total yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Watson has run 13 times for 54 yards as he tries to build chemistry with the Browns’ offense.
Baltimore’s defense ranks second against the run and eighth in scoring. They should be able to pressure Cleveland enough to keep this a one score game and cover.
Parlay Preview
Tennessee Titans +3 (-120)
Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120)
Parlay: +541
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