Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tackle Spencer Brown (79) exhale before a successful two-point attempt in the second half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears in Chicago, Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast) – Media by Associated Press
The final Monday Night game of the NFL season is set to be one of the best as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. The matchup will go a long way in determining the top three seeds in the AFC playoffs, as the Bills are tied with Kansas City at 12-3, and the Bengals are 11-4. Depending on the Ravens’ result Sunday night, the Bengals can also clinch the AFC North with a win on Monday.
The Bills are favored by 1.5 points, and the game total is set at 49.5 points. Let’s take a look at three bets to make on Monday Night Football.
Gabriel Davis Over 44.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Gabriel Davis isn’t the top Buffalo target and wideout; that is Stefon Diggs. But Diggs has been under the weather this week and got just two targets last week in Chicago. Davis is a distant second to Diggs in catches (101 to 45) and yards (1,325 to 797), but he has seven touchdowns on the season and a 171 ypc average.
Davis has at least six targets in three of the last four games. Assuming Eli Apple covers Diggs, Davis could get more chances on Monday night against the Bengals’ defense. Davis has topped this number in two straight games, and the Bengals have given up big yards to No. 2 wideouts this season.
This game could turn into a shootout as the Bills and Bengals both had with the Chiefs, and Buffalo did as well against Minnesota and Miami. In those games, Davis had 74 yards against KC, 93 against the Vikings, and 56 against Miami.
Joe Mixon Over 50.5 Rush Yards (-110)
As long as the Bengals aren’t playing catchup, they are going to give the ball to Mixon. Since coming back from injury, he has eased back into the game plan with 14, 11, and 16 carries in the last three games. Last week he had 65 yards against the Patriots at 4.1 ypc, and he had 96 against Cleveland in his return to action.
Buffalo has allowed nearly five yards per carry in the last two months. Cincinnati will need to establish the run against the Buffalo defense to open up the play-action passing and get Burrow time to operate. Mixon has topped 50 yards in eight of his 13 games this season and had at least 10 carries in all but three games.
Look for Mixon to be a big part of the offense on Monday, both as a runner and a pass catcher, as he goes over 50.5 rushing yards.
Tee Higgins over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tee Higgins is the leading receiver this season for Cincinnati with 102 targets, 73 catches, and 1,022 yards. Ja’Marr Chase will draw the best defenders and the double teams, which allows Higgins to operate on the other side of the field and bettors to take advantage of lower target numbers.
Last week Higgins caught eight balls against New England on nine targets. He finished with 128 yards, his second game over 100 yards in his last four full outings. Buffalo’s secondary hasn’t been as good lately, allowing the fourth most yards to wide receivers over the last eight games. That combination, plus knowing points are at a premium in this game, means Burrow will target Higgins early and often.
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