Media by Associated Press – Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) runs against the Chicago Bears during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Two teams having disappointing seasons meet up Monday night to finish off Week 15 of the NFL season as the Green Bay Packers (5-8) host the Los Angeles Rams (4-9). Last season the Packers were the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Rams won the Super Bowl. Now both teams have to win out just to have a prayer of making the playoffs, and they would need some major help to even secure the No. 7 seed.
Both teams have plenty of injuries on both sides of the ball. The Rams are expected to start new quarterback Baker Mayfield for the second week in a row, and the last time he played at Lambeau, he threw four interceptions on Christmas Day 2021. Meanwhile, Packers running back Aaron Jones is not 100%, and with the temperature expected to be in the teens at kickoff, Green Bay may look at a different game plan
As the Packers and Rams get ready to face off on ESPN Monday night at Lambeau Field, let’s take a look at three top bets to make on the game.
Christian Watson Anytime TD (+145)
The Packers are coming off their bye week, but rookie wideout Christian Watson has at least one touchdown catch in four straight games. Dating back to the November 13 win over Dallas, Watson has 35 targets, 15 receptions, and seven touchdowns in four games. He added a rushing touchdown against the Bears in the most recent Packers game and has also gone over 100 receiving yards twice in that span.
Romeo Doubs is expected to return this week, but Watson’s place in the offense is growing. He has clearly gained trust and chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. If Jones is indeed limited on Monday night with an ankle injury, then Rodgers will look more to get the ball downfield to Watson, Doubs, and Allen Lazard.
Given his speed and the Packers’ increased desire to get the ball in his hands, Watson can break a touchdown at any moment. At +145, he’s the third-best betting option behind the two running backs and a great value bet.
AJ Dillon Over 54.5 Rush Yards
Going with the Jones news, take a hard look at AJ Dillon’s rush total. The Packers bruising back is made for this time of the year, running in cold weather and bowling over tired, injured defensive players. Look for the Packers to run the ball away from Aaron Donald, but the rest of the Rams’ defense isn’t made the way it used to be.
In his short career, Dillon has rushed for 4.7 yards per carry in the second half of the NFL season, up from 4.0 ypc in the first half of the season. He piled up nearly 70 yards per game in the second half as well; Dillon ran for 93 yards on 18 carries against the Bears in Week 13 after Jones was limited.
Look for the Packers to control the clock by getting the ball in Dillon’s hands as much as possible. Dillon has posted at least ten carries in three of the last five games and has also gone over 60 rushing yards three times in the last five. Even if Jones is a full go on Monday, the Packers should have them sharing the load as they host the Rams.
Tutu Atwell Over 29.5 Rec yards (-110)
With Cooper Kupp out, the Rams need pass catchers to step up. Last week the top targets were Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell, combining for 12 catches and 139 yards. Mayfield targeted Atwell the most as he looked for the speedster nine times.
Look for that trend to continue against the Packers, who have had trouble all season against quick wide receivers. Atwell has three catches this season over 30 yards, and his average is 21.5 yards per catch. He has topped 30 yards in three of the last four games since Kupp went down.
Atwell could go over his number with just one catch, but look for him to get at least five targets on Monday night. Mayfield will look his way even more if the Rams fall behind like they did last week against the Raiders and need to rally with big plays to catch up to the Packers.
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