While the No. 1 seed Green Bay Packers enjoyed the bye week, the No. 6 seed Los Angeles Rams flexed their defensive muscles and upset the Seattle Seahawks last weekend. Now the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense faces the league’s top-ranked scoring defense with a berth in the NFC Championship Game on the line.
The Packers (-6.5) will host this divisional round playoff game at Lambeau Field at 4:35 p.m. on Saturday with coverage on FOX.
These teams have met since 1937 with the Rams in Cleveland, Los Angeles and St. Louis. They last played in 2018 in California, and the Rams won 29-27 to take a 47-46-2 lead in the series.
Playoff-wise, they have met twice, with the St. Louis Rams beating Green Bay 45-17 in January 2002 and the Packers winning 28-7 in December 1967 en route to a Super Bowl II title.
All About the Defense
The Rams are 10-7 ATS this season, and the under is 12-5 in their 17 games. The defense was awesome all season, leading the NFL in points allowed (18.5 points per game), yards allowed (281.9 yards per game), and passing yards allowed (281.9 yards per game), and ranking third against the run (91.3 yards per game).
The defense was key last week, intercepting Russell Wilson once, sacking him five times and allowing just one big pass play to DK Metcalf. Overall, the Rams held Seattle to 174 passing yards and got off the field on 12 of the Seahawks’ 14 third downs.
Aaron Donald had two of those sacks last week after racking up 13.5 in the regular season. He left the game with injured ribs but is expected to play against the Packers.
Donald and his front-seven teammates will be key against Green Bay. They must pressure Aaron Rodgers early and often as the offense will be hard-pressed to outscore the Packers.
The Rams’ key on offense will be rookie running back Cam Akers, who ran 28 times for 131 yards last week. With quarterback Jared Goff and wideout Cooper Kupp both battling injuries, the Rams need to pound the ball at a Green Bay team that allowed 113 rushing yards per game in the regular season.
Stop the Run
The Packers went 10-6 ATS this season, with the over going 9-7 in their games. The offense led the league in scoring at 31.8 points per game while finishing fifth in total yards at 389 per game.
The Packers have weapons, and they will need them all against this Rams defense. Rodgers is the likely MVP after amassing 4,299 yards and 48 touchdowns this season.
Davante Adams caught 115 passes for 1,374 yards and 18 scores and will likely draw Jalen Ramsey for much of the game.
But the Packers are not just Adams. Tight end Bob Tonyan had 11 touchdowns on 52 catches and 586 yards while Marquez Valdez-Scantling stretches the field when he holds onto the ball. Valdez-Scantling and Allen Lazard combined for 66 catches, 1,141 yards and nine scores.
Seattle ran for over 120 yards against the Rams last week, so Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams and A.J. Dillon will be a factor Saturday as well, especially in the passing game. Jones ran for 1,104 yards while adding 355 receiving yards, and he had 11 total touchdowns this season.
The Packers defense knows Goff isn’t 100 percent, so it will do everything possible to take away the run and make a California quarterback beat them in the cold. For all its early-season faults, the Green Bay defense hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in four of the last five games.
Betting Line and Analysis
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at home, with a total of 45.5. The Rams are +260 moneyline underdogs.
The Rams want to win a low-scoring slugfest while the Packers will attempt to push the ball and get the game into the 30s, where it is unlikely the Rams can compete. Los Angeles took the air out of the ball last week, but if the Packers defense can force a few early punts, that won’t be the case at Lambeau.
Free Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110)
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