Football is back, and we get an absolutely fantastic game to kick off the 2021 NFL season when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Tampa Bay to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers in a Thursday night tradition.
The quarterback matchup will be discussed heavily leading up to game-time with the Dak Prescott injury and the return of Tom Brady for his age 44 season.
Cowboys Offensive Firepower
Last season, the Cowboys’ offense was electric in the first four games, while Dak Prescott was healthy, particularly after their tough Week 1 opponent in the Rams. With a similar matchup this season, will we see a similar result, or will we see this offense fire on all cylinders in Week 1?
I expect this offense to put up points in this matchup with a healthier offensive line and a mobile QB that can escape some of the pressure that the Bucs will bring. We also saw that the Cowboys were even more dynamic while being asked to play catch-up in the early part of last season.
If they do struggle out of the gates, that will definitely be the case against this Bucs team, and that means we should see a ton of passing plays with a great group of receivers.
Ceedee Lamb became a star throughout last season, and the Cowboys have really focused on getting him on the field in a multitude of ways and keeping him involved in the offense as much as possible.
Last season, the Cowboys had Cooper and Gallup outside and Lamb in the slot, which left Lamb out of many plays where they would get out of 11 personnel groupings. Lamb is now prepared to play all over the field, which should mean that he is ready for a breakout season.
Tampa Bay’s Cohesion
For all intents and purposes, the Bucs are returning their entire team this season with the goal of running it back. You could argue one thing that was missing for the team was a pass-catching running back, something that Brady has relied on throughout his entire career.
This issue was solved with the addition of Giovani Bernard, and I expect him to have a fundamental role immediately in passing situations.
When I say that they return their entire team, I mean that they lost less than five true starters on their team to other teams in free agency, which is wild in today’s NFL. Especially on a team that just won the Super Bowl.
This means that we really should not see any schematic rust from the team as a whole on either side of the ball. This is most important to me on defense, where we can expect a defensive performance that doesn’t show a bunch of holes or breakdowns.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis and Pick
We saw the Cowboys with Dak play catch up in a lot of games, and this caused the scores to increase in general because their pass rate in these games was very high. I also would expect to see the same from the Bucs if they were to get down in this game.
I expect the Cowboys’ defense to be improved, but it was a unit that allowed almost 6 yards per play last season. The Bucs should be looking to attack the perimeter here and in the quick passing game, and this is a recipe for the over.
The Cowboys are just too talented to be this big of a dog in this spot. This offense could end up top 5 in points per game this year, and I cannot give up 9 points in a scenario like that. In just four full games last season, Dak Prescott became the only QB in NFL history to throw for 450+ yards in 3 games in one season.
If that statistic doesn’t make you love the over and the 9-points, I don’t know what will.
FREE PICKS: Cowboys +9 and Over 52
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