The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs had last week off with a bye as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and now they are ready to host the No. 6 Cleveland Browns in a divisional round playoff game on Sunday. The explosive Chiefs offense will have its hands full with a Browns defense that forced five turnovers last week as Cleveland looks to pull off a big upset.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with the game televised on CBS.
These teams haven’t met as much as you’d expect, given that both have been in the AFC since 1971 and have never met in the playoffs. The Chiefs lead the all-time series 13-11-2 and won the only Patrick Mahomes/Baker Mayfield tilt 37-21 on Nov. 4, 2018.
Stay Close Early
The Browns are 7-10 ATS this season, and the over is 10-7 in their 17 games. They rank third in the NFL in rushing (148.4 yards per game) and ninth defensively against the run (110.8 yards per game).
While they did pick off Ben Roethlisberger four times last week, the Browns also allowed over 500 passing yards and rank 22nd in the NFL against the pass this season (247.6 yards per game).
The Browns will try to use the same formula that has worked for them the last few games: pressure the quarterback, run the ball and avoid turnovers. Mayfield has not thrown an interception since the Dec. 14 loss against Baltimore, and he has completed 64% of his passes for six touchdowns in the last four games.
The Browns ran for 127 yards against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card win and tallied 192 yards in the Week 17 win over the Steelers.
Defensive end Myles Garrett leads the Browns with 12 sacks on the season, while linebacker B.J. Goodson racked up 91 regular-season tackles in 14 games. The secondary didn’t have anyone with more than two interceptions in the regular season, but the Browns grabbed 11 as a team.
They will have their hands full guarding Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the rest of the explosive Chiefs pass-catchers.
Stop the Run
Even at 14-2, the Chiefs struggled to blow teams out this season, going 7-9 ATS, and they haven’t won by more than six points since Nov. 1 against the New York Jets. The Chiefs led the NFL in total yards (415.8 yards per game) and passing yards (303.4 yards per game) this season while ranking sixth in scoring (29.6 points per game). The defense wasn’t great against the run, ranking 21st at 122.1 yards per game allowed.
As noted above, the Browns defense allows passing yards, as they even gave up 309 to Mason Rudolph in Week 17. Mahomes should be able to spread the ball around and find time to let his talented receivers to get open.
Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards in 15 games with 38 touchdowns and only six interceptions.
Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards and 11 scores this season, while Hill had 87 catches for 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns. The running game needs to provide balance through Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who ran for 803 yards in 13 games but was hobbled down the stretch and is questionable for Sunday. Le’Veon Bell filled in for 254 yards in nine games.
The experience of the Chiefs in the playoffs should help them as well with a run to the AFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl title in the last two years.
Betting Line and Analysis
The Chiefs are 10-point favorites with a total of 57 in this game. The Browns are +375 moneyline underdogs.
The Browns are 5-0 when rushing for at least 140 yards and 7-0 when generating at least two turnovers. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 22-5 in his coaching career coming off a bye week in the regular season and the playoffs, including a 5-2 record in the playoffs.
He had plenty of time to scheme up plays for Mahomes and company this week, so look for the champs to advance.
Free Pick: Chiefs -10 (-110)
For more picks, check out our picks page.