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— Saturday, December 18th New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on the NFL Week 15 schedule, with multiple games already moved to different days and times, including one of two scheduled Saturday games.
So far, the AFC showdown between the 9-4 New England Patriots and the 7-6 Indianapolis Colts remains on Saturday and is ready to go as scheduled with both teams coming off their Bye Week. Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 8:15 p.m. ET and will air on NFL Network.
These teams had quite the battles during the last decade with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as starting quarterbacks. The Patriots lead the all-time series 52-29, including a 4-1 mark in the playoffs. New England has won the last eight meetings in the series, and the Colts have not beaten Bill Belichick in the post-Manning era.
Patriots Winning With Defense
The Patriots are 9-4 ATS this season, and the under is 7-6 in their 13 games. The defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed and 3rd against the pass, but they rank 16th against the run, allowing 114.5 yards per game. The offense ranks 9th in rushing at 123.5 ypg and 18th in passing at 223 ypg as they score 26.9 ppg.
The Pats will be without starting running back Damien Harris (hamstring) on Saturday, leaving the starting job to rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris was injured against Buffalo when the Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards. Stevenson had 78 yards in that game, and he has 429 yards on 100 carries in nine games this season while scoring three times.
Quarterback Mac Jones is having a very solid rookie campaign with a 70 percent completion rate. He has 16 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and 2,869 passing yards. He threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns in a win against Tennessee before the Patriots focused exclusively on the run game in the bad weather at Buffalo.
Jakobi Meyers has been the top receiving target this season with 59 receptions for 620 yards and one touchdown. Kendrick Bourne has five touchdowns with 623 yards, while tight end Hunter Henry leads the team with seven scores.
Matt Judon is having a monster first season in New England with a team-best 12.5 sacks and 25 quarterback hits. The Pats have 19 interceptions, led by J.C. Jackson with seven and Adrian Phillips with four. New England has allowed 13 points or less in five straight games.
Taylor Running the Colts to the Playoffs
The Colts are 8-5 ATS, and the over is 8-5 in their 13 games. The running game is 2nd best in the NFL at 151.7 ypg, and the Colts rank 3rd in the league in scoring at 28.5 ppg. The defense is middle of the pack, ranking 12th against the pass and 16th against the run but 8th in points allowed at 21.8.
The Colts offense has scored at least 30 points in seven of the last eight games, with at least 200 rushing yards in three of the last five games. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 1,348 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He has topped 100 yards in seven games this season and scored in each of the last ten contests.
Quarterback Carson Wentz has finally stayed healthy this season and is turning in a Pro Bowl-caliber season. He has 22 touchdowns, 2,948 passing yards, and just five interceptions while completing 63 percent of his passes. He has added 170 rushing yards and one touchdown as the team’s third-leading rusher.
Michael Pittman Jr. leads the Colts with 67 receptions for 82 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox has four touchdown receptions, while both Jack Doyle and Zach Pascal have three. Taylor and running back Nyheim Hines have combined for 68 catches out of the backfield for an average of 9.1 yards per catch.
The Colts have three players with at least five sacks on the season, led by DeForest Buckner with 5.5. The defense has 15 interceptions, led by Kenny Moore with four, while Darius Leonard has recovered three fumbles to go with his two interceptions.
Betting Analysis
- New England Patriots +2,5 (-110) Money Line +120
- Indianapolis Colts -2,5 (-110) Money Line -140
- Total Points: 45.5 Over -115, Under -105
The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season, and they will likely key on the Colts’ run game and make Wentz beat them. With Harris out, the Colts can do the same and challenge the Patriots rookie quarterback to beat their talented secondary.
The way the Patriots are playing over the last two months, especially on the road, they are the play here.
Betting Pick: Patriots +2.5 (-110)
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