>The New England Patriots have a forecast 61% chance to win against The Atlanta Falcons with a spread of -1.0/1.0 and an over/under of 37.0. The New England Patriots are 0 – 0 against The Atlanta Falcons in the 2021-22 Season.
— Thursday, November 18th New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons
Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off with an epic Super Bowl rematch as the New England Patriots travel to face the Atlanta Falcons. Of course, Tom Brady is now in Tampa Bay, but that won’t stop talk of the 28-3 lead the Falcons had over the Patriots in Super Bowl LI before falling in overtime.
Thursday’s game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX and NFL Network.
In addition to that Super Bowl game in February 2017, the teams also met in October 2017, a Patriots win. New England has won the last six meetings, three in Atlanta. The Falcons’ last win over the Patriots came before the Bill Belichick Era, back in 1998, and New England leads the series 9-6.
Jones Coming of Age
The Patriots are back in the AFC East race thanks to a four-game winning streak that coincided with the Buffalo Bills dropping a pair of games. At 6-4, the Patriots are just a half-game behind Buffalo, who has already had their bye. New England will host the Titans over Thanksgiving weekend before a trip to Buffalo and their bye week.
During the win streak, the Patriots are averaging 37.5 points per game, and they have allowed 12.5 per contest. New England has scored at least 24 points in six straight games, and they have only allowed more than 24 twice this season in losses to Dallas and New Orleans. They are 4-0 on the road, scoring 25 points per game.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has completed 69 percent of his passes on the season for 2,333 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. During the win streak, he has just one interception to go with six touchdowns, and he completed 83 percent of his passes on Sunday against Cleveland.
The Patriots have employed a running back by committee this season though Damien Harris is the main ball carrier with 547 yards and seven touchdowns. He left the Cleveland game with a concussion and is questionable for Thursday. Rhamondre Stevenson took over and ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns, and with Brandon Bolden (hip) also banged up, he could get the bulk of Thursday’s work.
Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots with 50 catches, while Kendrick Bourne has a team-leading 520 yards. Tight end Hunter Henry has seven touchdown receptions, including two last Sunday and three in the last two games.
Matt Judon leads the Patriots’ defense with 9.5 sacks, and J.C. Jackson has five interceptions. The Patriots have picked off 14 passes on the season and returned two for touchdowns.
Falcons At A Crossroads
At 4-5, the Falcons had won three-of-four before getting blown out in Dallas 43-3 on Sunday. They are 1-3 at home this season, with losses by 26, four, and six.
Atlanta was limited to 214 yards in the loss in Dallas with just 111 through the air on 27 attempts. They also turned the ball over three times with Matt Ryan tossing two interceptions and backup Josh Rosen throwing one.
Ryan has thrown for at least 330 yards in three of the last five games, and when he does, the Falcons win. He has four interceptions in the last two losses and just one in the three wins since October 10. On the season, he has 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions, with just two of those picks coming at home.
Cordarrelle Patterson is one of the breakout fantasy stars of 2021 with a team-leading 303 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He also has 39 receptions for 473 yards and five more touchdowns. Mike Davis has 289 rushing yards and one touchdown, while Wayne Gallman led the team with 54 rush yards against Dallas.
Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons with 40 receptions and 606 yards on the season but has found the end zone just once. With Calvin Ridley out, Olamide Zaccheaus has stepped into the leading wide receiver role with ten targets in the last two games. Russell Gage had back-to-back games of at least 60 yards before going without a catch against Dallas.
Betting Analysis
- New England Patriots -7 (-110). Money Line -300
- Atlanta Falcons +7 (-110), Money Line +240
- Total Points 47.5 Over -110. Under -110
The Patriots are playing their best football of the season and all of a sudden look like a contender in the AFC. Their defense has allowed just 17.7 points per game and now face an offense that has struggled to score consistently all season. The Falcons will have to move the ball through the air against the Pats if they are going to sustain drives, and judging by last week, that may be too much to ask.
Betting Pick: Pats -7 (-110)
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