Media by Associated Press – Florida Atlantic’s Alijah Martin during the first half in an Elite 8 college basketball game against the Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament’s East Region final Saturday, March 25, 2023, in New York. Florida Atlantic won 79-76. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
The most chaotic Final Four in recent memory is heading toward its conclusion. Depending on how you define a mid-major, Gonzaga has been too successful for too long a time to be given the title; this will be the first Final Four to see a mid-major team advance to the finals since Butler made it out of the Horizon League in 2011. But history aside, there are still two semifinal games left to see who will get to play for a title.
Here’s a look at those two games.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. San Diego State (-1.5)
The Owls have won more games, 34, than any other team in the country. Florida Atlantic has had to grind out four single-digit wins to make the Final Four, including a 66-65 win in the first round against Memphis. The question now for the Owls is, can they avoid getting dragged into a rock fight by San Diego State?
The Owls like to push the pace and shoot well. Florida Atlantic averages 78.8 points per game and shoots 37.2 percent from the 3-point line. Florida Atlantic is 4-1 against the spread over the past five games. San Diego State plays at a more deliberate pace.
The Aztecs hold their opponents to 62.9 points per game and prefer to dig in on half-court defense. San Diego State shoots 34.7 percent from the 3-point line and makes 6.9 3-pointers per game. The Aztecs have covered six straight games against the spread and will do so again here to march on to the title game.
Miami Hurricanes vs. UConn (-5.5)
The Hurricanes never relented on offense, despite a double-digit deficit against Texas in the Elite 8. Miami continued to attack and grind until it was able to recover from a large halftime deficit to reach the Final Four for the first time in school history. The Hurricanes will now have an even tough task in old Big East rival UConn.
Hurricanes leading scorer Isaiah Wong would be wise to try and start hot against UConn. The Huskies are a good defensive team and could smother Miami if it starts slow again. Wong leads the Hurricanes by scoring 16.2 points per game.
Miami has four players who average more than 10 points per game. Forward Norchad Omier is a double-double machine, putting up 13.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per game for the Hurricanes. UConn won’t make Miami’s life easy.
Forward Adam Sanogo is a strong low-post presence for UConn. Sanogo averages 17.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Jordan Hawkins also averages 16.3 points per game.
The Huskies limit Miami to 64.4 points per game. Opponents only make 29.7 percent of their 3-pointers against UConn. Expect a similar result here, and the Huskies will cover the spread and play for their fifth national championship.
You can find more NCAA basketball picks here.