The first game of the Final Four on Saturday tips off at 5 pm ET on CBS from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Two teams from Texas have never met in the Final Four, and the last time a team from the state won it all was Texas Western in 1966. Baylor and Houston last met on Nov. 30, 2002, at Reliant Stadium in Houston, with the Bears winning 62-60.
Bears’ Fast-Paced Offense
Baylor is 18-10 ATS this season, and the over is 17-11 in its 28 games. The Bears have the third-best offense in the country at 85.3 points per game, and they lead the country in three-point shooting at 42.9 percent. The Bears’ defense allows 65.6 points per game and is plus-four in rebounding.
Baylor beat Arkansas 81-72 in the Elite Eight and is now 8-3 ATS when favored by single digits. The Bears limited the Razorbacks to three made three-pointers, forced 15 turnovers and made 48 percent of their shots.
MaCio Teague led the way with 22 points, the senior’s second game over 20 points in the tournament.
Guard Jared Butler leads the team at 16.5 points per game while Teague is at 15.9. Davion Mitchell finishes out the star trio at 14 points, while Mark Vital averages 6.8 rebounds per game.
Mitchell, Butler, Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer all shoot at least 40 percent from three on the season.
Cougars Own the Glass
Houston is 20-11 ATS on the season, and it is 8-0 in neutral-site games. The Cougars have not been an underdog all season until Saturday’s game.
They lead the nation in field-goal defense at 37.0 percent and rank second, allowing just 57.6 points per game. The Cougars are the top-ranked defense against three-point shooting as well and held Syracuse to 5-of-23 and Oregon State to 6-of-16 from beyond the arc in the last two rounds.
Houston has 62 offensive rebounds in four tournament games, and overall, it ranks fifth in the nation with 41 rebounds per game. The Cougars are plus-11 in rebounding on the season and average 77.2 points per game.
Quentin Grimes leads the way at 18 points per game, and he’s made 99 three-pointers on the season. Marcus Sasser combined with Grimes to make nine three-pointers against Oregon State, and he scores 13.5 points per game.
DeJon Jarreau is also in double digits at 10.8 points, while Justin Gorham averages 8.7 boards per game.
Betting Analysis
Houston’s defense has been fantastic in the tournament, and it will be challenged as its strength in three-point defense goes up against the best three-point shooting team in the nation.
On the other side, Mitchell is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and will have to slow down Grimes after being plagued with foul trouble against Arkansas. Houston will look to control the pace as it has in every game of the tournament thus far.
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