College basketball fans were disappointed with the cancellation of March Madness due to COVID-19. As people look forward to watching sports again, it’s never too early to look at the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season.
Even with the pause on play, Joe Lunardi is still working. Through commitments and transfers throughout college basketball, he has still been updating his bracket predictions. There is no doubt that these are subject to much change, but there’s no harm in looking forward to it.
Bracketology as of April 28
It is always a battle to see which conference can have the most success in the tournament, but also how many teams they can get in the big dance. Right. Now, Joe Lunardi has the Big Ten leading the pack with nine teams making the tournament. Following them is the Big 12 and ACC with seven each, SEC and Pac-12 with six, and the Big East with five.
The current No. 1 seeds are Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia, and Baylor. These have all been top teams recently, and it would come as no shock if they found their way to the top. However, if this turns out to be the case, it would be historic because of who isn’t a part of it.
The No. 1 seeds lack the names of Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State. It has been 30 years since one of these teams has not been in the top four of the Associated Press Poll. Not since 1990-91 have we been without at least one of these schools as a preseason No. 1 seed.
The closest to scratching into the top four is Duke at No. 6, a No. 2 seed in the bracket. Alongside them at receiving No. 2 seeds are Kansas and Michigan State. Kentucky is currently set as a No. 5 seed and North Carolina at a 6.
It Will Have Some Hits and Some Misses
In an ESPN article, Lunardi writes, “Know that a typical April bracket will correctly forecast about half of the top seeds for the following season. It will identify about two-thirds of the eventual at-large pool. And its misses will be glaring.”
This past season, Lunardi didn’t get to completely finish the job and see how well his algorithms worked. He was looking good on teams such as Baylor, Louisville, and Gonzaga, as they were all top teams in his preseason bracket.
Like many college basketball experts, he missed that North Carolina would perform that poorly. Having some to do with an injury to their best player. He also has Dayton as a bubble team in his 2019-20 preseason bracketology, but they proved to be one of the top teams in college basketball.
Teams will continue to get recruits, and their looks will change. There will be some things that Lunardi nails on the head, but others that he might overlook.
He concluded his article by saying, “So if you don’t like where we have your team — or if it didn’t make the cut — don’t fret. There will be movement (and plenty of it!). Selection Sunday 2021 is still 11 months away … we hope.”