Bucks Take Game Three on the Road
The Hawks came out swinging in Game Three but quickly cooled off as Giannis, and the Bucks found their touch from outside, led by Khris Middleton’s (38 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists) 6-12 performance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was extremely aggressive and attacked the painted area, exploiting mismatches and driving right at Atlanta’s big men. The Greek Freak has been enjoying the best stretch of his career, averaging 31.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 58% field goal shooting since the start of the second round against the Brooklyn Nets.
Trae Young led the Hawks as per usual with 35 points and four assists but was limited in his effectiveness in the fourth quarter, having suffered a bone bruise in his foot in the third quarter and gone to the locker room for examination. “Ice Trae” is averaging just under 30 points and 10 assists in his inaugural playoffs and has scored over 30 in eight of his fifteen games.
Hawks Hope to Claw Back to 2-2
Looking down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit and a trip back to Wisconsin to boot, the Hawks need to win Game Four to have a reasonable chance at reaching the NBA Finals; they managed to beat the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers in the same scenario the round prior and must replicate this performance Tuesday night. Trae Young is listed as questionable but is expected to suit up short of a miraculous setback.
Meanwhile, the Bucks seem to understand that this is their best chance to not only reach their first finals as a core unit but to capture the most coveted piece of hardware the NBA has to offer. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have awoken from their slumps, the shooters have found their stroke, and Giannis has been nothing short of unstoppable over the past few weeks.
The Betting Numbers
FanDuel has the -7 (-110) favorites and the Hawks +7 (-110) underdogs ahead of the weeknight clash— this is in spite of the Hawks enjoying the home-court advantage, suggesting the oddsmakers view Milwaukee as a near 10-point favorite on a neutral court.
The Bucks are -275 on the money line, while Atlanta is +225. There is great money to be made for a Hawks team capable of winning, but given their average margin of loss of 15.2 points, they have not been the best team to take on the spread.
The over/under has been set at 220 with -110 odds on either side; interestingly, every game in the series has gone under, causing the line to fall from a high of 226 in Game Two to the 220-mark ahead of Game Four.
The Pick
The Hawks have proven that they are capable of mounting comebacks and knocking off highly favored opponents, but they will run out of luck on Tuesday. Milwaukee is a hungry team with better players, exploitable matchups, and experience— the Hawks have had a great run, but it will soon be one game closer to ending.
The total score should be lower with Young’s foot ailment and the potential of another blowout on the cards, so a fourth-straight under makes the most sense.