The Cardinals swept the Rockies at Busch Stadium in May with two shutouts sandwiching a 9-8 win. Thursday’s series-opener also serves as a welcome back for long-time Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado who was traded to St. Louis in the off-season. Thursday’s 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Coors Field features Adam Wainwright (6-5, 3.59) against Antonio Senzatela (2-3, 4.76).
Wainwright the Leader the Cards Need
Over the last month, Wainwright has been the only solid part of the Cardinals’ once-formidable rotation that has been decimated by injury and poor performances. Before Tuesday’s win by Carlos Martinez, Wainwright was the only Cardinals starter to log a win since May 26. The veteran right-hander went 4-1 in that span and twice stopped losing streaks of at least five games.
Following a lineup shakeup, the middle of the Cardinals order is finally starting to put it together at the same time. Paul Goldschmidt had two doubles on Wednesday and has six hits in the last five games. Arenado leads the Cardinals with 16 homers and 52 RBI, and he had five extra-base hits in the seven-game homestand, while Tyler O’Neill had six hits and two doubles.
Wainwright has 92 strikeouts in 92 innings this season, and he logged at least six innings in all five June starts. He nearly went the distance against the Rockies on May 9 with a three-hit shutout over 8 ⅓ innings. In that outing, he walked three and struck out five.
For the Rockies, Charlie Blackmon is 4-for-11 with a homer against Wainwright, while Chris Owings is 4-for-5. Trevor Story is 2-for-10 with no RBI, and the active Rockies have just three RBI against Wainwright in 51 career at-bats.
Rockies Heating Up
The Rockies are also coming off a home sweep as they took out the Pittsburgh Pirates this week. Colorado is an impressive 28-16 at home this season, taking advantage of the home cooking and the notorious thin air. The Rockies have hit 53 of their 75 home runs at home this season, and they average 5.8 runs per game at home as opposed to 2.6 on the road.
Ryan McMahon leads the team with 16 homers and 44 RBI, while leadoff man Raimel Tapia is batting .291. The clock could be ticking on Story’s time in Denver as the trade deadline approaches, but he was recently announced for the Home Run Derby at Coors Field in two weeks. Garrett Hampson has struggled mightily against right-handers but collected four hits on Wednesday in Colorado’s 6-2 win over Pittsburgh.
Senzatela didn’t face the Cardinals back in May. Last time out, he took a no-decision at Milwaukee, allowing two earned runs on seven hits over five innings. He has gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts and is actually better at home this season (2-3, 3.91) than he is on the road (0-4, 6.35).
Senzatela has only faced six current Cardinals, but five of them are batting at least .250 against the right. O’Neill is 3-for-4 with a homer, while Goldschmidt is 5-for-17 with a homer and seven RBI. Paul DeJong is 3-for-9, Matt Carpenter is 4-for-10, and Tommy Edman has one hit with two RBI.
Betting Analysis
The Cardinals are -136 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+107) on the run line. Colorado is +115 on the money line and +1.5 (-127) on the run line. The total is 11.5 runs, with the over at -108 and the under at -114.
Wainwright has struggled on the road with a 6.31 ERA this season but has never lost at Coors Field, going 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA in six outings. The Cardinals bullpen has struggled to throw strikes, but the Rockies draw less than three walks per game. The way both these pitchers have been going over the last month, take a hard look at the under in this one.
FREE PICK: Under 11.5 runs (-114)