The Yankees send lefty Jordan Montgomery (3-3, 4.17) to the mound against Seattle rookie right-hander Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.10). The Yankees (44-41) have fallen into fourth place in the AL East, while the Mariners (45-42) try to avoid the same fate before the All-Star break.
Yankees Offense Coming Alive
Aaron Judge launched his 20th homer of the season on Wednesday, a two-run shot off Kikuchi as the Yankees scored in each of the first two innings. Luke Voit had five hits and three RBI on Tuesday before adding two hits on Wednesday. Giancarlo Stanton and Rougned Odor both have three RBI and a homer in the series, while D.J. Lemahieu has three hits.
Montgomery is 1-1 with a 5.53 ERA in eight road starts this season, much worse than his 2.96 home ERA. The lefty has been roughed up early with a 5.62 first-inning ERA, and righties have eight of the nine home runs off Montgomery this season.
Last time out, he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks over 4 ⅓ innings in a Saturday loss to the New York Mets. Montgomery hasn’t won since June 2, with at least three runs allowed in six of his last seven starts. He has never faced any of the current Mariners hitters.
Mariners Thrive in Close Games
Seattle is somehow over .500 at 45-42 despite being outscored by 54 runs on the season. They are 19-8 in one-run games and 10-1 in extra-inning games but have 18 losses by at least five runs.
The Mariners rank dead last in the American League in batting average, OBP, hits and slugging percentage. T-Mobile has been kind, though, with a 26-19 home record that includes seven walk-off wins.
The Mariners have just eight hits in the series while striking out 20 times. Ty France had two hits and an RBI on Tuesday while catcher Tom Murphy launched a three-run homer Wednesday. The Mariners starting pitchers in the series have allowed 11 runs in 13 hits and six walks over just six innings.
Gilbert is 0-2 at home with a 5.63 ERA in five starts. Opponents are batting .266 against him in Seattle but just .177 on the road, where he has a 2.04 ERA.
Gilbert has allowed five homers in 41 ⅔ innings this season, four at home. He has been great in day games with a 2-0 mark and a 1.83 ERA, but those wins came on the road. This will be his first outing against the Yankees.
Betting Analysis
The Yankees are -140 to get the sweep, and the run line is -1.5 for the visitors at +110. The Mariners are +120 moneyline, and the +1.5 run line is -130. The total is 8.5 runs, with the under at -105 and the over at -115.
The Yankees are finally getting more than just home runs with 18 hits on Tuesday and 10 on Wednesday. Going against a rookie pitcher who has struggled at home should benefit the veteran Yankees team on Thursday. Seattle could get things going against a struggling Montgomery and keep this one close into the late innings.
FREE PICK: Over 8.5 runs (-115)