The Brewers will start All-Star Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.23) against red-hot veteran Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27). The season series is tied 3-3, with each team going 2-1 on the road. The Cardinals went 6-0 on a road trip to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, while the Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10.
Brewers Rely on Pitching
The Brewers’ pitching staff has been awesome all season long. They rank second in the Majors in average against (.215), OPS against (.645), third in strikeouts (10.16/G), third in runs allowed (3.76/G), and third in home runs allowed (0.99/G). Milwaukee is a better road team on the season with a 40-20 mark way from American Family Field.
Avisail Garcia leads the Brewers with 21 home runs on the season, but only four others have more than 10 dingers. Former MVP Christian Yelich has struggled all season with a .235 average to go with six homers and 31 RBI in 76 games.
Burnes went into the record books on Wednesday against the Cubs as he struck out 10 batters in a row and finished with 15 strikeouts. The right-hander allowed four hits over eight shutout innings in the win and lowered his August ERA to 0.90. Burnes is 5-0 in his last 12 starts and has 172 strikeouts this season to just 21 walks.
Burnes faced the Cardinals in April and May, taking a loss despite allowing just one run total in 11 innings. He has allowed five home runs to the current Cardinals in his career, with two hits by Matt Carpenter and one each by Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, and Dylan Carlson. Goldschmidt is 6-for-13 (.462) against Burnes, while Nolan Arenado is 2-for-3 and Yadier Molina is 1-for-7.
Cardinals Last Stand
With 45 games left, the Cardinals are 10 games back in the NL Central and four back in the Wild Card race. They can’t afford to lose this series against the division leaders if they want to return to the playoffs this season.
They have the right guy on the mound to set the tone for the series. Wainwright, who turns 40 at the end of the month, threw a complete-game shutout in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. He allowed just two hits and struck out seven to improve to 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA this month.
Wainwright hasn’t lost since July 16, and he is 8-1 in his last 12 starts. The right-hander took a no-decision against the Brewers on April 8 as he allowed one run on five hits over five innings. In his career, Yelich is 4-for-16 against Wainwright, while Lorenzo Cain is 4-for-17, and no current Brewer has a home run against the Cardinals starter.
Arenado has led the Cardinals this week with a home run in each of the three games in Kansas City. He has 25 on the season, five more than outfielder Tyler O’Neill and eight Cardinals have at least eight homers on the season.
Betting Analysis
- Milwaukee Brewers -155 Moneyline. -1.5 run line (+110)
- St. Louis Cardinals +140 Moneyline. +1.5 run line (-130)
- Total runs: 7. Over -115. Under -105.
When Burns and Wainwright went head-to-head in April, the final score was 3-1, with neither pitcher getting a decision. While both starters are at their best of 2021, the Brewers definitely have the better bullpen, and both teams have allowed three runs or less in four of the last six games. If runs aren’t scored early in this game, it may come down to the final at-bat, which gives Milwaukee an advantage.
FREE PICK: Under 7 runs (-105)