Media by Associated Press – Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) runs during the sixth inning in Game 1 of baseball’s American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
The 2022 World Series is a contrast between the experienced Houston Astros and the inexperienced Philadelphia Phillies. As the series starts in Houston on Friday, the Astros are favorites, both in game one and in the series overall. Houston was widely expected to contend for a World Series title all season, but the Phillies were given up for dead when they fired manager Joe Girardi in June and were 35-to-1 longshots to win it all.
Fast forward four months and the Phillies are red-hot after sliding into the playoffs as the last wild-card team. They swept the Cardinals, dethroned the Braves, and out-slugged the Padres, all without home-field advantage.
The Astros, meanwhile, haven’t lost since they fell to the Phillies in the final regular season series on Oct. 3. Houston won the final two games of that series before sweeping Seattle in the ALDS and the Yankees in the ALCS for a nine-game winning streak.
Series Odds
The Astros are favored to win the World Series at -185, while the Phillies are +180 underdogs. The leading pick for series length is six games, with the Astros winning 4-2 at +340, and they are +390 to win in seven games. The top odds for the Phillies is to win in seven at +650, and the longest shot is a Phillies sweep at +1800.
The Astros are -165 on the money line to win Friday’s series opener with the Phillies at +140. Houston is +125 on the run line (-1.5), and the Phillies are -155 at +1.5 runs. The total for the game is 8.5 runs, with the over at -120 and the under at +100.
Series Format
The series will take a 2-3-2 format with travel days mixed in. The series starts Friday in Houston, with game two on Saturday. Sunday is an off day before three straight games in Philadelphia. If the best-of-7 series continues, there will be an off day on Thursday, Nov. 3, before potentially finishing in Houston with game seven on Saturday, Nov. 5.
The Phillies have announced that Aaron Nola will start game one with Zach Wheeler in game two. The Astros haven’t officially announced starters, but it is widely expected that Justin Verlander will get the ball in the opener with Framber Valdez in game two.
Nola is the last pitcher to beat the Astros. He helped the Phillies clinch a playoff spot with the Oct. 3 win in Houston as he threw 6 ⅔ shutout innings with two hits allowed and nine strikeouts. In three playoff starts, Nola has allowed six earned runs (all against SD) in 17 ⅓ innings while walking three and striking out 18.
Verlander no-hit the Phillies over five innings on Oct. 4 while striking out 10 in a 10-0 win. He is 10-1 at home this season and has allowed seven runs in 10 playoff innings while striking out 14 and walking two. In his career, Verlander is 0-6 in seven World Series starts with a 5.68 ERA.
MVP Odds
Even though the Astros are favored to win the World Series, Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper is the MVP favorite at +650. The next Phillies player is Kyle Schwarber at +1300, while Nola is +1600 and Wheeler is at +1700.
Harper is 18-for-43 (.419) in the playoffs with five home runs and 11 RBI. He was the NLCS MVP while also adding three doubles against the Padres. Schwarber batted .400 with three homers in the NLCS after starting 1-for-20 in the first two rounds.
The top Astros pick Yordan Alvarez at +700, with Verlander at +960, Kyle Tucker at +1000, Framber Valdez at +1100, and Alex Bregman at +1200. Jeremy Pena, the ALCS MVP is +1700.
Alvarez cooled off in the ALCS but hit two homers and drove in seven in the ALDS. Bregman hit .333 in both the ALDS and the ALCS, with two homers and seven RBI combined. Pena hit .353 in the ALCS with two homers, two doubles, and four RBI in four games.
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