Media by Associated Press – New York Mets’ Pete Alonso is congratulated by teammates after hitting a sacrifice fly during the 11th inning in the first baseball game of a doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs in Chicago, Saturday, July 16, 2022. The Mets won 2-1. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
The stars of stars in Major League Baseball converge on Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles this week for the All-Star Break.
Monday’s Home Run Derby starts at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the All-Star Game is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET Tuesday, airing on FOX.
Alonso Favored to Three-Peat
No one has ever won the Home Run Derby three times in a row. But Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso has never lost a derby at any level in his career. Last year he hit 74 home runs overall, and he clubbed 59 in 2019, the second and sixth highest totals ever.
Alonso has a tough first-round matchup in a rematch against Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr. Alonso beat Acuna by one homer in the 2019 semifinals before he knocked off Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the finals. The winner will then face either rookie Julio Rodriguez or former Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager in the semifinals.
The top seed is Philadelphia slugger Kyle Schwarber who hit 55 home runs in the 2018 derby. He lost in the finals that season to current Phillies teammate Bryce Harper, 19-18. Schwarber has 29 homers on the season, leading the NL, and as the top seed, he will face future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols.
The sentimental choice, Pujols has just five home runs on the season, the lowest tally ever for a derby participant. This is his fifth career Home Run Derby, and he has 71 career homers in the contest but has never won a title. His 685 career homers make him the most ever for a player in the derby, and this will be his second time competing in the knockout round format.
Soto hit 31 homers in the first round last year, the fourth-highest one-round tally ever. Soto has 20 home runs on the season and will face Cleveland’s third baseman Jose Ramirez in the first round.
Alonso is the favorite at +200, and he is -105 to make the finals. Schwarber, the top seed, is +350 to win and +135 to make the finals. Acuna and Soto are +600 to win the title, while Rodriguez and Seager are +900. Ramirez is +1800, and Pujols has the longest odds at +2200.
PREDICTION: Alonso +220 is the easy pick given his derby history. But one player who can definitely take him down is Soto, who has the experience and the pedigree to go deep in this format.
American League Favored in Game
As for the game itself, the American League has won eight straight All-Star Games, and they are 20-3-1 in the last 24 years. Even with the game in a National League park, the DH will be used, and the home field advantage is negligible. Yes, the hometown Dodgers have five players on the roster, but once the game starts, they will have little impact.
We know who the starters are for both teams but not yet the lineup or the starting pitchers. Even in losing Mike Trout and Jose Altuve to injury over the weekend, the AL has a loaded starting nine with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, Guerrero Jr., and Giancarlo Stanton leading the way. Tim Anderson and Byron Buxton are great table setters, with Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk behind the plate.
Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts leads the starters for the NL along with first-half MVP Paul Goldschmidt from the Cardinals and Acuna. Brothers William and Willson Contreras will be the first siblings to start the same All-Star game since the Alomar’s in 1992. But the NL is without starters Bryce Harper and Jazz Chisholm, plus reserves Nolan Arenado and Starling Marte.
Manny Machado and Joc Pederson are two former Dodgers in the starting lineup, while LA shortstop Trea Turner starts alongside Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil. Schwarber will come off the bench along with Alonso and Freddie Freeman to give the NL some late pop.
Pitchers Lead the Way
Pitching traditionally takes the day at All-Star games with multiple hurlers just letting it all go with 100 MPH fastballs and devastating sliders as they know they will get just one inning at most. Again the AL has the advantage in the bullpen with relievers like Liam Hendricks, Jordan Romano, Clay Holmes, and Jorge Lopez.
They lost Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole but still have starters Shane McClanahan, Ohtani, Framber Valdez, Alek Manoah, and Nestor Cortes to navigate the early innings.
The NL lost Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Carlos Rodon, and Max Fried from the original selections. Expect Marlins fireballer Sandy Alcantara or Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw to get the starting nod.
Joe Musgrove, Luis Castillo, Tony Gonsolin, and Miles Mikolas can bridge the gap to the bullpen. Without Hader, the NL still has late options in Edwin Diaz along with hard-throwing Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams to close out the game if they are in position.
Betting Analysis
- American League -1.5 (+165) Moneyline -105
- National League +1.5 (-195) Moneyline -115
- Total Runs 7.5. Over -115. Under -105.
During their win streak, the AL has won by an average of 2.2 runs per game. The last 10 All-Star Games have all finished under ten runs except for an 8-6 AL win in 10 innings in 2018. Five of the last eight have totaled under seven runs as pitchers have dominated the Midsummer Classic.
Betting Pick: AL to win (-105) and under 7.5 runs (-105)
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