The Philadelphia Phillies (6-9) are off to a slow start this season, already five games back in the NL East after losing on Saturday. They can get things going by winning the series against the Milwaukee Brewers (9-6) on Sunday. The final game of the series is set for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball at 7:08 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
The Phillies will start RHP Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.52) against Milwaukee LHP Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.48).
Last season the Phillies won the first five games they played against the Brewers, including a four-game home sweep in May. Milwaukee took the final two games, including one won by Lauer at Miller Park in September.
Brewers Bullpen the Bright Spot
Milwaukee won on Saturday 5-3 after falling behind 3-0 and scoring four runs in the fifth inning. Hunter Renfroe had the big bat with three hits, including a home run and a double. The Brewers bullpen preserved the lead with three shutout innings as Trevor Gott, and Josh Hader maintained their 0.00 ERAs on the season.
Milwaukee has struggled offensively so far this season as Christian Yelich is batting .204 with Willy Adames at .200 and Kolten Wong at .173, and those three bat in the top three slots.
Rowdy Telles, who had Saturday off, leads the Brewers with three homers and eight RBI. Overall the Brewers are 13th in the NL with a .203 team average, 13th in home runs (11), and 12th in scoring at 3.5 runs per game.
The bullpen has been lights out this season, with ten pitchers combining to allow just 15 runs for a 2.77 ERA. Five relievers have ERAs of 0.00, and Hader already has seven saves while striking out ten and allowing two hits in seven innings.
Lauer makes his third start of the season on Sunday night. He allowed one run and five hits on Monday in a 6-1 win over Pittsburgh. Lauer struck out five, walked one, and allowed a solo home run in six innings of work.
Lauer has given up a home run to Bryce Harper before, but J.T. Realmuto is just 1-for-11 against the lefthander, and Jean Segura is 0-for-5. Nick Castellanos usually hits lefties well with a career .303 average and .540 slugging, but he’s 2-for-9 against Lauer.
Phillies Looking to Turn the Corner
Castellanos drove in two runs on Saturday as the Phillies took a 3-0 lead, but they couldn’t hang on. Philadelphia won the series opener on Friday with ten total hits. Alec Bohm drove in two with the win, and Harper had a double and a RBI.
Bohm leads the team at .393, with Castellanos batting .321 on the season with Realmuto at .296. Harper is batting .241 with two homers and a team-leading 11 RBI. Newcomer Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with four homers but is batting just .164
Nola had his best outing of the season in Colorado on Monday. He allowed two runs on six hits over 5⅓ innings but took a loss as the offense scored just one run. Nola struck out four and walked three in his third start of the season.
Nola has allowed four home runs in 14 ⅔ innings this season but has 16 strikeouts. Renfroe has had success against Nola, going 5-for-11, while Yelich is batting .391 against the righty with a home run and five RBI.
Betting Analysis
- Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 run line (-145). +135 Money line
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line (+125) -155 Money line.
- Total Runs: 8 Over -105 Under -115
Lauer has been under the radar, one of the Brewers’ best starting pitchers allowing less than three runs in five of seven starts dating back to last September. Neither offense has gotten going yet this season, and both bullpens have more than held their own. Look for the runs to be at a premium in this one, especially in the national spotlight.
Betting Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-115)
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