>The Ohio State Buckeyes have a forecast 69% chance to win against The Michigan State Spartans with a spread of -11.5/11.5 and an over/under of 65.0. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 0 – 0 against The Michigan State Spartans in the 2021-22 Season.
— Saturday, November 20th Michigan State Spartans @ Ohio State Buckeyes
The top of the Big Ten East is on the line Saturday as the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 7-0) host the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans (9-1, 6-1). The game is a must-win for the Spartans, who lost at Purdue after beating Michigan, while the Buckeyes still have to travel to 1-loss Michigan next week. Kickoff at Ohio Stadium in Columbus is set for Noon ET, and the game will air on ABC.
Ohio State leads the series 34-15, and they have won five in a row, plus seven of the last nine. The Spartans won at Ohio State in 2015 and 2011, going 2-2 in their last four trips to Ohio Stadium. The last four games have been blowouts, with the Buckeyes winning by 40, 24, 20, and 45 while holding the Spartans under 12 points in each win.
Spartans Have to Be Multi-Dimensional
Michigan State is 7-1-2 against the spread this season, and they are 4-1 on the road overall. The over is 6-4 in their ten games. The Spartans defense has allowed 444 yards per game this season, 329.5 per game through the air, while the offense ranks 22nd in the nation at 451 yards per game.
Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker III is the nation’s leader with 1,473 rushing yards on the season and second with 17 touchdowns. He has rushed for at least 136 yards and a touchdown in three straight games and gashed Michigan for 197 yards at 8.6 per carry with five touchdowns.
Quarterback Payton Thorne has completed 63.4 percent of his passes on the season for 2.460 yards with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He struggled against Michigan with two interceptions and only 196 yards but has thrown six touchdown passes in the two wins since then. He’s gone over 275 yards in six games this season and will need to make some big throws against the Buckeyes to move the sticks.
Wideout Jayden Reed is the deep threat with an average of 18.4 yards per catch. He has 48 catches on the season for 829 yards and seven touchdowns. Jalen Nailor has six touchdown receptions to go with 31 catches for 587 yards on the season.
Buckeyes are Balanced
The Buckeyes are just 5-4-1 ATS this season, and they are 5-1 overall at home with the loss to now No. 3 Oregon. The over is 6-4 in their ten games, and the Buckeyes offense ranks No. 1 in the nation with 550.3 yards per game. They are sixth in passing at 353.6 yards per game, and the Ohio State defense allows just 107.3 rush yards per game.
Freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud is in the thick of the Heisman race and can take big strides to the award against the two Michigan teams over the next eight days. On the season, he has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 3,036 yards and 30 touchdowns with just five interceptions. Stroud has thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight games while tossing eight touchdowns.
Freshman Treveyon Henderson is second in the nation at 7.3 yards per rush, and he has 1,035 yards with 14 scores on the season. He is complemented by Miyan Williams, who has 435 yards and two touchdowns and is coming off a 117-yard game against Purdue.
Wideouts Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave all have at least 50 catches on the season. Smith-Njigba went for 240 yards against Nebraska and has 24 catches for 379 yards in the last two weeks. Wilson missed the Nebraska game but came back to rack up 126 yards and three scores against Purdue last week, while Olave has scored in seven straight games.
Betting Analysis
- Michigan State Spartans +19.5 (-110)
- Ohio State Buckeyes -19.5 (-110)
- Total Points 68.5 Over -115. Under -105
Michigan State is going to have to control the clock and win the turnover battle to have any chance to win this game. They can run the ball, but their defense is shaky and may not be able to stop Ohio State at all without turnovers.
The Buckeyes did fail on their biggest stage so far this season, but that was in Week 2, and their talented freshmen have improved immensely.
Betting Pick: Ohio State -19.5 (-110)
Keep up with your latest NCAAF news coverage and betting pick previews at NJSportsbookReview.com.