— Wednesday, January 19th LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
A pair of SEC teams looking to get back on track face off Wednesday as the No. 13 LSU Tigers (15-2, 3-2) go on the road to face the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-6, 2-3). Both teams suffered surprising defeats over the weekend, and this game is a contrast in styles. Tip-off at the Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, is set for 7:00 pm. ET and will air on ESPN2.
Alabama has traditionally dominated this matchup with a record of 112-74 and a remarkable 43-9 mark at Coleman Coliseum. Last season Alabama beat LSU three times, including 80-79 in the SEC Championship game and 78-60 at home. The Tide have won four in a row overall in the series, and LSU last won in Alabama back in 2019.
Tigers Defense is Stellar
The Tigers are 13-4 ATS, and the under is 14-3 in their 17 games. They have only played three true road games this season, but they won at Florida in their last conference road game. The defense leads the nation in steals (12.2 spg) and rank fourth in turnovers forced (18.7).
LSU ranks 7th nationally in defense, allowing just 57 ppg, and no team has scored more than 70 against them. They lead the nation in FG shooting percentage defense at 34.5 and rank seventh against 3-pointers at 26.3%. The offense is scoring 75.5 ppg, but they rank 258th in 3-point shooting at 32.1%.
The Tigers are coming off a 7-point home loss to Arkansas that ended a modest 3-game winning streak. LSU shot just 38% for the game and got killed on the boards by 10.
Cincinnati transfer Tari Eason doesn’t start for LSU but leads the team in scoring (14.5 ppg) and grabs 7.1 rebounds per contest. Missouri transfer Xavier Pinson leads the team with 4.6 apg and is scoring nearly 11 ppg but missed the Arkansas and Florida games with an injury and is a game-time decision for Wednesday.
Darius Days averages 14.0 ppg to go with a team-best 7.6 rpg, but he had just three points and four rebounds against Arkansas. Eric Gaines has started the two games Pinson missed, scoring 15 at Florida and 14 against Arkansas.
Guards Dominate Play For Alabama
The Tide are 7-9-1 ATS, and the over is 12-5 in their 17 games this season. They are 7-1 at home and overall rank dead last in the SEC in rebounding. Last time out, they lost at Mississippi State 78-76.
Alabama ranks 13th in the nation in scoring at 81.8 ppg, and they are shooting 32% from 3-point range, down from last year. The defense is allowing 74.6 ppg, ranked in the bottom 50 in the nation; however, they allow just 29.4% shooting from distance, 41st in the country.
The Tide were ranked before losing three in a row, including a home game to rival Auburn last Wednesday. They have covered in just one of their last nine games a 13-point win at Florida.
Jaden Shackleford leads Alabama with 16.2 ppg and is tops in the SEC with 52 made 3-pointers, an average of 3.1 per game. He struggled from distance against MSU, going 1-for-9, and he’s just 6-for-25 from deep during the losing streak.
Keon Ellis scores 12.2 ppg and is the Tide’s leader in rebounding (6.3) and steals (1.9) while leading the conference with an 89% free throw mark. Jahvon Quinerly is scoring 14.8 ppg and leads Alabama with 4.2 assists per game.
Betting Analysis
- LSU Tigers +3.5 (-110). Money Line +155
- Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 (-110). Money Line -180
- Total Points: 150 Over -110. Under -110
Only one of LSU’s conference games has even gone over 130, and in four of their last five games, the under has hit by at least 16 points. Alabama will attempt to control the pace of the game by shooting a high volume of 3-pointers and running with their guards; easier said than done against LSU. If Pinson plays, the line will probably get bumped in the Tigers’ favor, but either way, the under is the way to go in this one.
Betting Pick: Under 150 (-110)
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